Learning to live with Covid? India may be entering endemic stage, says top doc
“We may be entering some kind of stage of endemicity where there is low-level transmission or moderate level transmission going on but we are not seeing the kinds of exponential growth and peaks that we saw a few months ago."
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India might be entering the endemic stage of the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19), chief scientist of the World Health Organization (WHO) Dr Soumya Swaminathan said on Wednesday. The senior official said this particular stage will be marked by low or moderate levels of transmission, with no peak or exponential growth as witnessed during the second wave that had wreaked havoc in the country.
“We may be entering some kind of stage of endemicity where there is low level transmission or moderate level transmission going on but we are not seeing the kinds of exponential growth and peaks that we saw a few months ago," Swaminathan said in an interview.
The United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines an endemic as “the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area”.
In other words, a population slowly learns to live with the disease. An endemic is the observed level of a disease and never the desired level, since desired level of any disease will always be zero. When the disease rises above expected levels, it becomes an epidemic or an outbreak, and when the epidemic spreads to several countries it becomes a pandemic.
The WHO chief scientist said India’s diverse population and varying immunity levels in different parts makes it quite likely that the situation might continue like this with “ups and downs in different parts of the country”. Swaminathan added cases might rise particularly in places where the population is more susceptible to infection due to being less exposed to the first and second waves, and low vaccine coverage.
{{/usCountry}}The WHO chief scientist said India’s diverse population and varying immunity levels in different parts makes it quite likely that the situation might continue like this with “ups and downs in different parts of the country”. Swaminathan added cases might rise particularly in places where the population is more susceptible to infection due to being less exposed to the first and second waves, and low vaccine coverage.
{{/usCountry}}Also Read: India's daily Covid-19 tally jumps by 12,000 cases; new deaths rise too
{{/usCountry}}Also Read: India's daily Covid-19 tally jumps by 12,000 cases; new deaths rise too
{{/usCountry}}“As far as India is concerned that seems to be what is happening and because of the size of India and heterogeneity of population and immunity status in different parts of country in different pockets, it is very very feasible that the situation may continue like this with ups and downs in different parts of the country, particularly where there are more susceptible population, so those groups who were perhaps less affected by first and second waves or those areas with low levels of vaccine coverage we could see peaks and troughs for the next several months," she told reporters.
{{/usCountry}}“As far as India is concerned that seems to be what is happening and because of the size of India and heterogeneity of population and immunity status in different parts of country in different pockets, it is very very feasible that the situation may continue like this with ups and downs in different parts of the country, particularly where there are more susceptible population, so those groups who were perhaps less affected by first and second waves or those areas with low levels of vaccine coverage we could see peaks and troughs for the next several months," she told reporters.
{{/usCountry}}Countries all over the world are slowly learning to live with coronavirus and relaxed restrictions. Focus is gradually being shifted to containing infections and expediting the vaccination process. Countries like Thailand, Australia, Singapore and many others have also started to look at coronavirus as an endemic, and insisted that the general population will have to start learning how to live with it.
