E-Paper
Monsoon to arrive 4 days earlier
New Delhi: Conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16, according to the India Meteorological
New Delhi: Conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The normal date for the arrival of the monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar region is May 20.
According to a statement issued by the IMD, a low-pressure area formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on May 13. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression over central parts of south Bay of Bengal on May 15 and further intensify into a cyclonic storm over southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by May 16 evening. It is then likely to move northwestwards till May 17 and then recurve northnortheastwards. These conditions are making it favourable for the advancement of the monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar but the IMD will announce if the arrival of the monsoon over Kerala will also be early on May 15.
The Weather Company of IBM, a private weather forecaster, has forecast that the monsoon will arrive slightly early on May 31 over Kerala. “Our models and data Show May 31 as likely arrival,” said Himanshu Goyal, India business leader, The Weather Company. “The low-pressure area over south Andaman Sea will intensify into a cyclone but we are not yet sure where it will make landfall. It could be over West Bengal coast or over northeast,” he added.
“The normal arrival date of monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands is May 20 with a standard deviation of 7 days. This time it is expected to arrive on May 16. We will announce the date of monsoon arrival over Kerala on May 15 based on latest data,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
“Andaman region is expecting early rains due to the low-pressure system that has formed over the South Bay of Bengal. This low pressure system is expected to develop into a cyclonic storm and pull the southwesterly monsoon winds early into the Andaman seas. An early onset at Andamans need not mean that the rest of the country receives an early onset. This is because several factors, including low pressure systems in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and the phase of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations govern the northward progression of the monsoon,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
There will be gales of 65 to 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal from the evening of May 16. Squally winds reaching 45 to 55 kmph will prevail over Andaman Sea. Sea condition will be rough to very rough over south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal from May 15 to the evening of May 16, very rough to high over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal from the evening of May 16. Fishermen are advised not to venture into south and central Bay of Bengal from May 15. Those who are out at sea over these regions are advised to return to coasts by Thursday.
The IMD has forecast a normal monsoon this year. A few global climate models are indicating the possibility of development of weak La Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean during the second half of the monsoon season. La Niña is characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and good monsoon rains. Mohapatra said a more refined monsoon forecast with zone wise distribution will be issued by the IMD towards the end of May or the beginning of June.
Meanwhile, under the influence of a western disturbance, thundershowers are likely over Western Himalayan region and over plains of northwest India during next two or three days. “Isolated thunderstorm accompanied with hail, gusty winds and lightning is also likely over these regions during the same period,” the IMD bulletin said. Delhi NCR is also likely to get thundershowers.
Due to a trough (area of low pressure), thundershowers with lightning and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are very likely over south peninsular India during next four or five days.
