...
...
Next Story

Number theory: Can India’s demographic dividend help it overtake the Chinese economy?

By July 1, India’s population will be an estimated 1.429 billion, 2.96 million more than China’s estimated population.

Updated on: Apr 21, 2023, 14:31:22 IST
Advertisement

The United Nations believes that India’s population has overtaken China’s or will do so by July 1. By then, India’s population will be an estimated 1.429 billion, 2.96 million more than China’s estimated population on that day. A high population, especially in a younger age cohort, is generally seen as an asset rather than a liability for the economic fortunes of a country. The simple reason for this is that more people also means more working hands.

PREMIUMChina’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report said. (AP File Photo)
China’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report said. (AP File Photo)

It is this

Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3

The United Nations believes that India’s population has overtaken China’s or will do so by July 1. By then, India’s population will be an estimated 1.429 billion, 2.96 million more than China’s estimated population on that day. A high population, especially in a younger age cohort, is generally seen as an asset rather than a liability for the economic fortunes of a country. The simple reason for this is that more people also means more working hands.

PREMIUMChina’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report said. (AP File Photo)
China’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report said. (AP File Photo)

It is this understanding which has generated a widespread consensus that India is now enjoying a unique demographic dividend. To be sure, a demographic dividend is not a guarantee that a country will catapult its economy to a significantly higher income level and this reasoning holds for India’s economic prospects vis à vis China as well. Here are three charts that explain this argument in detail.

Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
All Access.
One Subscription.

Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines
to 100 year archives.

E-Paper
Full
Archives
Full Access to
HT App & Website
Games
 
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

Get the latest India News, breaking headlines and real-time updates from across the country. Stay informed about politics, government policies, crime, weather and major national developments.
Get the latest India News, breaking headlines and real-time updates from across the country. Stay informed about politics, government policies, crime, weather and major national developments.
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
Hindustantimes wants to start sending you push notifications. Click allow to subscribe