Number Theory: Decoding the 1st phase of assembly elections

The voting on November 7 is the first and smallest of four phases of voting in the current round of elections

The last round of assembly elections before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has kicked off on Tuesday. The voting today is the first and smallest of four phases of polling in the current round of elections. Only 60 of 679 assembly constituencies (ACs) across five states going to polls – less than 10% – will vote in this round. 20 of these ACs are in Chhattisgarh and 40 in Mizoram. While the remaining 70 ACs of Chhattisgarh will vote in

Voters queue up outside a polling booth in Kondagaon as they await their turn to cast a vote in the first phase of Assembly elections.(ANI)

• Where are the polls happening?

  While all of Mizoram is voting on November 7, the contest in Chhattisgarh is limited to the southern half of the state. The 20 ACs of Chhattisgarh voting in the first phase are spread across nine of 27 districts in the state (as defined in the latest National Family Health Survey) and across two of three regions (as classified by the Trivedi Centre for Political Data). The nine districts are Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma in the Bastar region, and Rajnandgaon and Kabeerdham in the Chhattisgarh Plains region. The voting will conclude polling in the Bastar region while 56 of 64 ACs of Chhattisgarh plains region will vote with the rest of the state on November 17.
• 
  Domination by Scheduled Tribes is common to both states voting in the first phase, but they are still very different demographically

  In the latest NFHS conducted in 2019-21, Mizoram’s population had the highest proportion of STs among any state or union territory (ST) while this share in Chhattisgarh was the highest among any big state. In the 20 ACs of the latter voting in the first phase, the ST share in population is 1.5 times the state average. Clearly, STs are the most important social group in this phase of polling in both Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. However, this similarity across states does not mean that the demographic characteristics of voters in this phase are the same. Almost all STs in Chhattisgarh are Hindu and almost all STs in Mizoram are Christian. Similarly, in terms of ownership of basic assets and amenities, Mizoram is the richest state going to polls in the current round of elections, according to the 2019-21 NFHS. On the other hand, the nine districts of Chhattisgarh voting in this phase are poorer as a group than districts going to polls in the second phase in the state, and also the other four states. The individual districts, however, are not all same. For example, Rajnandgaon and Kabeerdham – the non-Bastar districts voting in this phase – are richer than even most second phase ACS of Chhattisgarh. On the other hand, Lawngtlai district in Mizoram is actually poorer than Rajnandgaon and Kabeerdham, and is the only Mizoram district poorer than any in Chhattisgarh voting in this phase.
• 
  Sometimes, Congress has performed well in first phase Chhattisgarh ACs even when losing the state

  This is a trend that can be tested only from the 2008 assembly election because constituency boundaries were changed in a delimitation exercise before that election. However, data shows that in three assembly elections held in the state since, the Congress has won a majority of these 20 ACs twice – in 2008 and 2018 – although it won the state only in 2018. In both elections, the Congress performance in these ACs in terms of both seat share and vote share was better. This trend carried over even to Lok Sabha elections – which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won all four times in the state – in 2019 to some extent. Although Congress lost the state to BJP, its AC-level performance in the 20 ACs voting in the first phase was much better than the state on average.
• 
  The fight in Mizoram is also for the second position

  Since 1989, when the current incumbent Mizo National Front (MNF) fought its first election, power in the state has alternated between the MNF and the Congress. This does not always make an election in the state a straightforward contest between these two parties. In fact, the parties that generally finish below these two parties have at times appeared to upset this bipolar equation. This also appears to be possibility in this election if past statistics are any indication. This is because while the MNF has just hopped between the top two positions, the Congress has finished third twice: in 1998 and 2018. The Mizoram People’s Conference (MZPC) finished second in 1998 and independents as a group stood second in 2018. These two groups are not unrelated challengers. The MZPC landing the second position was preceded by independents winning a large share of seats (their highest share from 1998 to 2018). Some of the independent winners of 2018 were also related to the MZPC. All these independent winners were members of then un-registered Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), a coalition of MZPC and other parties formed just a month before that election. To be sure, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also joined this contest in 2018, when it won its first ever seat in the Mizoram assembly. Clearly, this election will not just be about the winner, but also how much of the assembly strength remains with the MNF, or the Congress.