Rain and thundershowers across northwestern India, accompanied by strong winds brought the mercury down on Sunday, with Delhi reporting a maximum temperature of 34 degrees Celsius, six degrees below normal, as weather officials said relief from the heatwave is likely to extend through the next week.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), meanwhile, said that the monsoon is set to arrive in Kerala on time on Monday, even as Maharashtra and Gujarat were place on “pre-cyclone alert” as a low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea threatened to intensify into a cyclonic storm in 36 hours.
In northwest India, a fresh western disturbance will likely bring more rainfall and thundershower from June 3 to June 5, which will mean that a heatwave is not likely to return to Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) before June 8, weather officials said. Peak rainfall and thundershower activity is likely in the region on June 4.
“Heat wave conditions are unlikely till June 8. The combination of the upcoming western disturbance and low-pressure area over Arabian Sea there will be thundershowers over parts of Delh- NCR and rest of northwestern India,” said Kuldeep Shrivastava, head, Regional Weather Forecasting Centre, Delhi.
In Delhi, the maximum wind speed recorded on Sunday was 60kmph at Palam. The maximum temperature recorded at Safdarjung, which is taken to be a representative of Delhi, was 34.6 degrees Celsius, 6 degrees below normal, and the minimum temperature was 20 degrees Celsius, 7 degrees below normal.
{{/usCountry}}In Delhi, the maximum wind speed recorded on Sunday was 60kmph at Palam. The maximum temperature recorded at Safdarjung, which is taken to be a representative of Delhi, was 34.6 degrees Celsius, 6 degrees below normal, and the minimum temperature was 20 degrees Celsius, 7 degrees below normal.
{{/usCountry}}Meanwhile, IMD said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on Monday as conditions on Sunday were favourable for its advancement into some parts of the Arabian Sea, Maldives-Comorin area, southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal.
“We are expecting favourable conditions for monsoon onset over Kerala because a low-pressure area has developed over southeast Arabian Sea which is likely to intensify and strengthen the monsoon winds. With the intensification of monsoon flow we expect onset of monsoon,” said K Sathi Devi, head of the national weather forecasting centre.
IMD had forecast in April that monsoon rains this year are likely to be normal at 100% of the long period average with a model error of 5%. IMD will issue a second stage long-range forecast for the monsoon on Monday.
Monsoon rains are critical for farmers in India, where nearly half the people directly or indirectly depend on agriculture for a living. Around 60% of the country’s net-sown area does not have any form of irrigation and millions of farmers wait for the rains to begin summer sowing of major crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals and oilseeds. Half of India’s farm output comes from summer crops dependent on these rains.
In another development, Maharashtra and Gujarat are on a pre-cyclone alert as a well marked low-pressure area over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea is likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 12 hours and to intensify into cyclonic storm, “Nisarga,” in the subsequent 24 hours, IMD said on Sunday.
The low-pressure area formed on Sunday around 5.30am and all environmental conditions are favourable for intensification of the low-pressure area into a cyclone, IMD scientists said. IMD officials said they will release details on the intensity and likely impact of Nisarga (if formed) only once they have clearer picture from the prediction models.
Once formed, the cyclonic storm is very likely to move nearly northwards till June 2 morning and then recurve north-northeastwards and may reach near north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts in the morning on June 3.
Under the influence of the storm, light to moderate rainfall with some heavy to very heavy rain is very likely over Lakshadweep area, Kerala and coastal Karnataka on May 31 and June 1, the IMD said. Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is likely over south Gujarat, north Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on June 3 and 4.
“We are expecting rapid intensification of the cyclonic system once formed, because sea surface temperature is high, wind shear (variation in wind velocity) is low and ocean heat potential is also high. We want the state governments to be alert. But we cannot give the intensity of the cyclone now because models may not be able to simulate accurately immediately. We will give details as soon as possible,” said Sunita Devi, in charge of cyclones at IMD.
The sea surface temperature in parts of Arabian Sea is 31 degrees C compared to a normal of 28 degrees C expected during this season. “Maharashtra and Gujarat can expect very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall in some areas,” she added.
Gale wind speed reaching 65-75kmph gusting to 85kmph over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along and off Karnataka-south Maharashtra coasts is likely from June 2 morning and further becoming 90-100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph over eastcentral and northeast Arabian Sea along and off Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts from June 3 morning.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area and along and off Kerala coast till June 2; eastcentral Arabian Sea and along Karnataka coast till June 3; eastcentral Arabian Sea and off Maharashtra coast and northeast Arabian Sea along and off Gujarat coast during June 3 and 4. Fishermen out at sea were advised to return to the coasts by Sunday.