Rajasthan’s electoral contest explained

A look at some charts that explain the nature of the electoral battle taking place on November 25

Voting will be held in 199 out of Rajasthan’s 200 constituencies today (25 November). Here are some charts that explain the nature of the Rajasthan contest.

Polling for the assembly elections in Rajasthan will take place on November 25.

The charts that matter

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  Power alternates between the BJP and Congress at the state level since 1993

  Since 1993, Rajasthan has followed a tradition of consistently voting the incumbent out of power in each election, and power has alternated between the two principal rivals, namely, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. While power changing hands is a regular feature in Rajasthan, the magnitude of electoral victories and losses has varied over the last three decades. There have been landslide victories, and there have been smaller ones. An analysis of the BJP and Congress seat share from 1993 shows that the Congress had a seat share of 76.5% in 1998. The BJP won big in the 2003 and 2013 elections claiming 60% and 81.5 % of the total assembly constituencies (ACs), respectively. In the 2018 elections, the Congress won 99 ACs, while BJP won 73 ACs.
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  Jodhpur, Kota, and Udaipur divisions are the BJP’s biggest pocket of strength

  Trivedi Centre for Political Data (TCPD) at Ashoka University classifies Rajasthan into seven divisions – Ajmer, Bharatpur, Bikaner, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kota, and Udaipur. Of the total seven sub-regions, Jaipur is the biggest with 49 ACs, followed by Jodhpur with 33 ACs. A subregion-wise analysis of seat-share for the past three elections – a pre-2008 analysis is not possible because of change in AC boundaries due to delimitation – shows that the BJP is very strong in the sub-regions of Jodhpur, Kota, and Udaipur. Even in 2018, the seat share of the BJP in the Kota and Udaipur divisions were 58.62% and 53.57% respectively, while it was 42.42% in the Jodhpur division. In the 2018 elections, the Congress had a seat share of 68.42% in the Bharatpur division. It also performed well in the Jaipur and Kota divisions – claiming 59.18% and 58.82% seat share in these regions An AC-wise analysis from 2008 onwards shows that of the 200 ACs in the state, the Congress has never been able to register a victory in 54 ACs. On the other hand, there are just 19 ACs where the BJP has never been able to win. There are 28 and five ACs which have been won by the BJP and the Congress in all three elections since 2008 in the state. It is important to note here that of the 28 ACs that BJP won thrice, seven are located in the Jodhpur division, while six each are in the Ajmer and Kota divisions.
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  Independents can play an important role in government formation in 2023

  Another feature of the contest in Rajasthan is that although the power alternates between the BJP and the Congress, independents and other parties have not become irrelevant. Except in 1998 and 2013, when the Congress and the BJP won big, parties other than these two have won 12-14% seats. Around half of these other parties’ seat share has been won by independents. To be sure, a lot of these independent candidates are rebels from either the BJP or the Congress who have been denied tickets. With both the Congress and the BJP in some sort of leadership tussle, independents could play a big role in government formation in 2023 as well.
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  Other backward classes (OBC) are the largest social groups in the state with some regional variations

  Demographically, OBCs are the largest social groups in the state. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) puts the OBC population in the state at 45.7% of the total population. Scheduled Caste (SC) groups are the second largest social group with a share of 22.14% followed by Scheduled Tribes (ST) at 13.52 % of the total population. The share of STs in Rajasthan’s total population is four percentage points higher than the share of STs in all India’s population. The SC population in the state is commensurate with their share in all India population. A sub-regional analysis of the state shows that Udaipur is the stronghold of ST groups, representing a substantial 50.3% of the total ST population in the state. Ajmer division has the largest share of OBCs, claiming 53.66% of the overall population. The state’s SC population is concentrated in the territories of Bikaner, Jodhpur, and Bharatpur.