School enrolment may dip by 2025: NCERT study
The study, titled “Projection and Trends of School Enrolments by 2025”, also noted an exponential increase of 900% in over enrolments and over a 1000% growth in intake of girl students between 1950 and 2016
New Delhi: School enrolment is expected to decline at all levels by 2025 due to a decline in population in the age group of six to sixteen years, a study released by the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) on Thursday suggested
The study, titled “Projection and Trends of School Enrolments by 2025”, also noted an exponential increase of 900% in over enrolments and over a 1000% growth in intake of girl students between 1950 and 2016.
Enrolments in schools are directly proportional to the growth in child population in a particular age-group, the study said. According to the 2011 population census, there was a decline in growth rate in case of child population, it added.
“In census 1991, the proportion of child population in the age group 0-6 years to the total population was about 18% which declined to 13.12% in census 2011,” the study said.
“The proportion of the girl child population also declined from 18.12 to 12.93% from 1991 to 2011. As a result, the (overall) gap between enrolment and population also decreased,” it added.
While enrolment at the primary stage began declining after 2011, those at the upper primary level began reducing after 2016, the study observed.
“At the secondary stage, the enrolment (boys, girls, total) started declining after 2019… Since 2011, the enrolment has been declining and it will continue till 2025,” the report said.
While primary stage refers to Classes 1 till 5, upper primary refers to Classes 6 to 8 and secondary refers to Classes 9 and 10.
Enrolment in the concerned age group is likely to decrease by around 14.37% between 2011 and 2025, the study projected. Of this, enrolment of boys is likely to reduce by 13.28% and that of girls by 15.54%, it added.
“At the upper primary stage, the enrolment of boys, girls and the total started to decline from 2016. During the period, enrolment decreased by 9.47 % (in total), 8.07 % (boys) and 10.94 % (girls). Similarly, decline in enrolment was also recorded at the secondary stage but decline started from 2019,” it said.
The NCERT report will be of great use to policy planners, policy makers and researchers in the country, NCERT director Dinesh Prasad Saklani said.
“This report studies the projection of enrollment of students in schools for states and Union territories and for marginalised groups. State functionaries can also benefit if they note the trends in their respective states,” he said.
The NCERT report referred to data from education statistics published by the ministry of education, All India School Education Survey conducted by the council itself, and Unified District Information System for Education (UDISE) data collected by the education ministry and covered 20 states and Union territories.