This winter will be warmer than usual: IMD forecast
India's winter from December 2023 to February 2024 is forecasted to be warmer than usual, with lower intensity and frequency of cold waves.
New Delhi This winter — from December 2023 to February 2024 — will be warmer than usual for the country as a whole, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast, predicting that the intensity and the frequency of cold waves will be lower than normal in most parts of north, northwest, central, east and north-east India.
Releasing the forecast for the season on Friday, IMD’s director general, M Mohapatra, said that above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, and above-normal maximum temperatures are also expected over most regions except some areas in central and northwest India.
“Just like the forecast for November, the upcoming month and the winter season in totality this season is expected to be warmer than usual,” Mohapatra said. “The monthly maximum temperatures for December are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except some areas of central India and north India where normal maximum temperatures are likely,” he added.
To be sure, IMD predictions that based on multiple variables, and do not always bear out.
Scientists explained that below normal western disturbances, which push colder winds from the snowclad regions to parts of northwest and central India thereby bringing the temperatures down, are a primary reason behind warmer temperatures so far, which is also expected to continue through the season.
In 2022 as well, the Met department had forecast a warmer than usual winters and maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country remained slightly higher.
Most parts of the country over the last few months have recorded above-normal temperatures. The Met department data shows that India recording the third-highest maximum and minimum temperatures for November since 1901, when IMD began record-keeping.
According to IMD, normal temperature is maximum and minimum temperature recording that is calculated for a period of time—1971 and 2000--for each region. Any deviation from this calculated value in that particular station is considered an anomaly.
The IMD forecast also gave a detailed rainfall prediction.
“Above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the northwest, adjoining areas of central and east India, and some areas of extreme south peninsular India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the northeast India, north peninsular India, and adjoining areas of central India,” the forecast said.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet, also confirmed that warmer than usual winters are predicted.
“We are currently seeing lower than normal western disturbances, this does not just mean less rain spells but also the winds that bring cold winds from the snowfall affected states is also not reaching this side. The cyclonic storm is also blocking the winds from the snowfall impacted states and this is also keeping the minimum temperatures higher than normal,” he said.