2022 mini-Assembly polls in Maharashtra: Real test for Shiv Sena

10 civic bodies, including Mumbai, and zilla parishad (district councils) in 27 districts go to polls in what are described as mini-Assembly polls

After parting ways with ally Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena rode to power in Maharashtra on the back of an alliance with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Although Shiv Sena leaders maintain that it has not abandoned Hindutva, the stance of the party has softened over the year since it came to power. The 180-degree turn to forge an alliance with the two parties it fought against for decades will prove to be a major roadblock in growth or a gamble that will pay off in time?

The Shiv Sena will get an answer to this question in less than two years as 10 civic bodies, including Mumbai, and zilla parishad (district councils) in 27 districts go to polls in what are described as mini-Assembly polls.

Party makeover

The Shiv Sena, under the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray, has deviated from his father Bal Thackeray’s style of politics. Uddhav wants the party to be a moderate version of what it was and reach people across the state, going beyond its traditional strongholds. He also decided to head the government when he got the opportunity.

Political analysts point out that this shift in thinking in the party, coupled with the anger of being ditched by the BJP on CM’s post, brought about this new political dynamic in Maharashtra. Political analyst Surendra Jondhale said, “The political makeover is crucial for its future. The old character of the Sena, which was parochial and aggressive, is gone now. However, the Sena will not disown its Marathi identity and Hindutva ideology. With regards to Hindutva, Sena’s Hindutva’s was always different from BJP’s; even Balasaheb [Thackeray] acknowledged it in his later days.”

The Sena has faced criticism from various quarters on aligning with Congress-NCP for the sake of power. The Sena intends to keep Hindutva identity intact, but the BJP, which has a far more reach across the country, has been able to use the Hindutva plank far better, say experts.

Political gain

For the Shiv Sena to gain politically, observers said it will have to stick with the NCP and Congress to beat the BJP. Sanjay Raut, Sena leader and an architect of the three-party alliance, has stressed the long-term intention of the party, with his remarks that the MVA will remain together not for the next five years, but 25 years.

Jondhale added that the Thackeray government will have to resolve the socio-economic issues, including those of farmers, related to caste, employment, and infrastructure and industrial development in the state, if they want people to look beyond the ideology.

Pratap Asbe, another political analyst, said, “As long as the MVA allies are together, they can counter the BJP. But they will have to stay together in local self-government polls. The key issue which could emerge in ZP elections is seat-sharing. If they remain together, they will win or else the BJP will gain to some extent.”

There could be a triangular contest between the Congress, BJP and Sena to wrest control of the Aurangabad civic body, which is now controlled by the Sena. Last month, Congress minister Amit Deshmukh said the Congress had always gone solo in local polls and this year too workers want to go solo.

However, Jondhale doesn’t see fissures appearing in MVA, even if the Congress goes solo in local polls. “The Congress has a grassroot network across districts. The trio will remain together till the next Assembly election. The glue of political power is very strong,” he said. “If the government succeeds in solving socio-economic problems, it will guarantee power. Uddhav Thackeray has won the goodwill of the people. Post-pandemic, he will have to start delivering on promises.”