Covid cases can double if universal screening is done: Health experts

Covid-19 cases in the city crossed the 10,000 mark on Wednesday but if universal screening is done, the number can double up as 70% of cases in Mumbai are asymptomatic,

Covid-19 cases in the city crossed the 10,000 mark on Wednesday but if universal screening is done, the number can double up as 70% of cases in Mumbai are asymptomatic, said health experts.

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In the last two weeks, cases of the novel coronavirus disease surged from 3,683 on April 22 to 9,945 on May 5 (a 170% rise). The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) had stopped tests on asymptomatic patients since April 12, following the protocol of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The state health department had also instructed all government and private laboratories to not collect samples from persons not showing any symptoms.

The ICMR’s circular made it mandatory to test only symptomatic persons (who have cough, fever), people over 60 years of age who are high-risk contacts of Covid-positive patients, whether they are showing symptoms or not; healthcare workers, pregnant women and patients on dialysis and chemotherapy. Asymptomatic high-risk contacts of positive patients can get tested if they develop symptoms.

“We don’t even know how many patients are asymptomatic in the city due to the change in protocol. The detection rate has increased from 4 to 8% but thousands are still going undetected. So, it will be difficult to confirm the actual number of cases in Mumbai,” said Anant Bhan, a global health expert.

As per the data by the state health department, till April 29, the health officers could track only 45% of the contacts of Covid positive patients in Mumbai. Whereas, in Pune and Thane, health workers could contact 29% and 20% of the close contact of patients. In Mumbai, one field team is required to cover 200 contacts per day in containment zones.

Even though over 95,000 tests have been conducted in the city many private and government laboratories are providing reports in delay of 2-3 days, which further slows down the treatment. Due to lack of testing facilities in Thane, Navi Mumbai and Palghar, all the samples are being sent to Kasturba Gandhi Hospital and King Edward Memorial (KEM) which add to their work pressure.

“As per the new rules, only when patients start developing symptoms, they qualify for a Covid test. Now if they are made to wait for another 2-3 days, their condition deteriorates. This leads to delay in treatment of patients,” said Dr Abhijit More, co-convenor, Jan Aarogya Abhiyan.

To address the issue, Dr TP Lahane, director of Directorate of Medical Research and Education issued a circular on April 4 stating that BMC-run laboratories will test samples only from Mumbai while samples from other districts will be sent to the laboratories in JJ and Haffkine Hospitals. But according to sources, due to an increasing number of samples, BMC ends up sending around 150 samples every day to state-run labs for analysis.