Maharashtra at 1 lakh cases, where does Mumbai stand?

Amid the grim Covid-19 milestones, Mumbai is showing some signs of improvement, with its share in Maharashtra’s cases dropping to 54.82% as of June 12, from the

Amid the grim Covid-19 milestones, Mumbai is showing some signs of improvement, with its share in Maharashtra’s cases dropping to 54.82% as of June 12, from the average of 64% in May. The city has seen a dip in cases in Dharavi, Worli, Wadala and Parel, which had emerged as Covid hotspots, according to the state’s and civic body’s data for their wards. Some areas such as Govandi, and Mankhurd, Bandra East, and slums of Kurla and Ghatkopar, too, are registering a drop in cases in June, compared to May.

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Experts, however, say it is too early to rejoice. Reasons? None of the 24 wards of Mumbai are showing signs of flattening the curve. Experts feel Mumbai is in the middle of its peak right now, with this being its “wait-and-watch period”. And, with the staggered easing of relaxations announced in the city since June 5, as part of Maharashtra’s Mission Begin Again plan, cases are likely to surge again.

Moreover, the number of cases on any given day in June for Mumbai has not dropped below 1,000. On an average, any given day in June saw 1,300 covid-19 cases, compared to the average of 1,250 in the last 10 days of May.

OFFICIALSPEAK

Municipal commissioner IS Chahal said, “Over 25,000 patients have recovered. The doubling rate is 25 days now. For better management of bed availability, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) now has a decentralised ward-level bed management system and a dashboard for beds in real-time. There is an Uber platform for booking ambulances. BMC will also add 650 more ambulances to its fleet next week. There have been no deaths due to lack of dialysis in the past one month. A figure of 52,000 cases is scary, until you look at these things.”

According to a senior civic officer from BMC’s health department, a person infected by Covid-19 will begin to show symptoms or will test positive anywhere between the first or fifth day from being infected. Taking this into consideration, BMC has decided to closely observe the period of two weeks from the time Mumbai began to ease its restrictions. The city has seen more cases on June 11 and June 12, which mark over six days since Mission Begin Again. June 11 recorded 1,418 and June 12 saw 1,366 cases.

THE NUMBERS

As of Friday, 45.35% or 25,152 people of cases have recovered. It has 28,248 active cases at present, or 50.94% of the total cases recorded so far. Mumbai contributes to 54.82% of Maharashtra’s total cases. It contributes to 56.9% of Maharashtra’s active cases, and 54.99% of its total deaths.

On May 1, Mumbai’s share in Maharashtra’s cases was 67.89% and in the state’s deaths was 60.82%. On May 15, this went down to 60.62% share in cases, but 61.32% in deaths. At the end of last month, on May 31, Mumbai contributed to 58.65% of Maharashtra’s total cases, 59.97% of its active cases, and 55.94% of the deaths.

This drop is mainly attributed to a decrease in Mumbai’s growth rate to 2.76% as of Thursday. A week ago, on June 5, it was 3.09%. On May 31, Mumbai’s growth rate was 3.85%, and on May 27, it was 5.17%.

WARD DATA

The G-North ward, with jurisdiction over Dharavi slum and earlier identified as a Covid-19 hotspot, and the G-South ward, with jurisdiction over Worli Koliwada, the first containment zone of Mumbai, have shown improvement in their curve. Both these wards have more recoveries than active cases.

The G-North ward with areas of Dharavi, Dadar, and Mahim has recorded a total of 3,668 cases so far. It has 1,251 active cases (34%) as of Thursday. Over 60% of its patients have recovered and have been discharged. Its growth rate is 1.5%.

The G-South ward, covering areas of Worli, Lower Parel, Elphinstone, and Prabhadevi, with a total of 2,593 cases, has shown a recovery rate of 55%. A total of 38% of its cases are active. Its growth rate is 1.8%.

The E ward, comprising Byculla, Nagpada, and Mumbai Central, which is among the five wards with most number of cases in Mumbai (3,085) has more patients who have recovered in comparison to its active cases. While 52% of patients in E ward have been discharged, 44% of its total cases are active. The ward has a mortality rate of 3.10%.

The M-East ward, comprising slums of Govandi and Mankhurd, also has a high recovery rate in comparison to its active cases. It has a total of 2,444 cases, 52% of them have recovered. It has 44% active cases (1,082).

However, wards where the curve is steeply rising even now are K-East, with a total of 3,616 cases, a growth rate of 4.1%, and 53% active cases. P-North of Malad has shown a steep upward curve with a total of 2,569 cases, a growth rate of 4.9%, and 69% of its cases still active.

Prashant Sapkale, assistant commissioner of K-East ward, said, “There has been a rise in the number of cases in the past 15 days. It is a very big ward, in terms of population, floating population or bridge population of essential workers, and the area. It has Seven Hills
Hospital, Marol Police Line, CISF camp, Trauma Hospital and airport.”

Sanjog Kabare, assistant commissioner of the P-North ward was not available for comment.

EXPERTSPEAK

Madhav Sathe, retired professor of microbiology at Nair Hospital, said, “Cases are on a downward trend in certain areas, and hence it will impact Mumbai’s curve. While this is good news, the curve needs to further go downward.”

According to Sathe, an important aspect for Mumbai to focus on is further reduction of its death rate. He said, “There are two or three treatment modalities which need to be activated soon, independent of government procedure of clearance. Remdesivir, an antiviral drug, and Tocilizumab , an immuno-modulant drug, can be proactively used. There is ICMR permission to use these drugs. However, the rule states the hospital committee has to approve its use in a medical college which can take seven-eight days. That is precious time lost.”

Sathe said this drug has shown good results in many countries battling Covid-19, and permission to use these drugs need to be fast-tracked. “We will reduce the death rate to almost 1% with this, and plasma therapy.”

Regarding lifting of lockdown, Sathe said, “I think we are in our peak of cases now. Cases are likely to increase due to staggered easing of relaxations, but that can be handled when mortality is reduced, and the phobia around the infection is reduced.”

Sanjay Pattiwar, a city-based public health consultant, said, “Now that restrictions have eased, the scenario is going to change. Factors such as population density, use of public transport, compromised social distancing because of it are going to contribute to increase in cases. More contact tracing is required now. But the government may not have the resources required to trace so many contacts. It is not even possible considering Mumbai’s population.”