Maharashtra not witnessing Covid-19 second wave pattern: Health department official

Maharashtra, which is anticipating a potential second wave of Covid-19 cases, is not witnessing any signs of a surge so far, said state health department officials. The state’s tally rose to 1,868,172, of which 71,910 are active.

Maharashtra on Thursday continued to clock less than 5,000 new cases for the sixth consecutive day with 3,824 Covid-19 cases. Maharashtra, which is anticipating a potential second wave of Covid-19 cases, is not witnessing any signs of a surge so far, said state health department officials. The state’s tally rose to 1,868,172, of which 71,910 are active.

A health workercollects the swab sample of a resident at Goregaon in Mumbai. (HT File Photo)

Maharashtra also recorded 70 fatalities, pushing the death toll to 47,972. Of the fatalities reported on Thursday, 51 occurred in the past 48 hours and 19 in the past week. The state’s case fatality rate stood at 2.57%.

Mumbai, meanwhile, reported 798 new cases, taking the city’s caseload to 288,696. Mumbai also reported 13 deaths, taking death toll to 10,942. The city currently has 11,886 active cases.

The state, which had anticipated a second wave of Covid-19 infections, has so far not witnessed any signs of it, said Dr Subhash Salunkhe, chairman of communicable diseases prevention control and member of the state-appointed technical committee.

As per the different project models of the state health department, it was projected that Maharashtra could see a surge in fresh cases by December-end or by January-February next year. The figures over the past week have not suggested any signs of an increase in infection rate or more cases.

In the past seven days, Maharashtra has reported 25,585 Covid-19 cases and 373 deaths with a daily average of 3,655 cases and 53 deaths. During the same period, the state tested 370,196 samples. The average number of tests conducted daily was 52,885 while the positivity rate was 6.91%.

“These are favourable and positive signs. We had thought that since people had come out in large number before Diwali, it would trigger the second wave. One thing is beyond doubts that we are not seeing a second wave pattern in Maharashtra, especially in Mumbai and Pune. There is a lull. Now, whether this lull is one before the storm or this will result in a positive outcome, we will know in the next three to four weeks,” Salunkhe said.

Health department officials, however, are still wary about lax behaviour by people in maintaining Covid-appropriate steps as it could change the pattern in the state.

“At this stage, we will not say that the risk is over and that we are out of the woods. I would like to wait for three more weeks, and if the same pattern of either a plateauing or a decline continues then we will be [in a] comfortable [position],” Salunkhe added. He said people will have to continue to not step out, if avoidable and continue masking and sanitisation regularly.

Meanwhile, over the past one month, Nagpur and Akola divisions have seen a high percentage growth in fresh cases signalling that the region is now seeing more cases as per the epidemiological cycle. Mumbai and Pune divisions saw the highest number of cases recorded in terms of absolute numbers, but the percentage increase is around 7% in the month.

Nagpur division, which covers Nagpur, Wardha, Bhandara, Gondia, Chandrapur and Gadhchiroli districts, added 22,241 fresh cases between November 10 and December 9, which is an increase of 14.02%. Akola division, covering Akola, Amravati, Yavatmal, Buldhana, and Washim districts, added 6,004 new cases during the same period, which is an increase of 11.02%.

Mumbai division, covering Mumbai, Thane, Palghar and Raigad districts, added 44,990 fresh cases, while Pune division, which covers Pune, Solapur and Satara, added 29,928 cases in the same period.

The share of cases for Mumbai division increased by 7.51% while that of Pune increased by 6.88%.

Salunkhe said, “These regions (Nagpur and Akola) got the infection little later. The epidemic pattern we saw initially in Mumbai and Pune was that of high transmission. Therefore, Mumbai and Pune are stabilising now. Nagpur and Akola will follow and stabilise in three to four weeks as per the epidemiological cycle.”

Thursday also saw 5,008 patients being discharged after treatment, taking the tally of total recovered patients to 1,747,199. The recovery rate improved to 93.52%. So far, Maharashtra has tested 11,502,427 samples and has an overall positivity rate of 16.24%. In the past 24 hours, 54,704 samples were tested with a positivity rate of 6.99%.