Column| Once bitten, the Shiv Sena is no way twice shy

The results of elections to the three Hindi heartland states have almost reduced the BJP to begging the Sena for an alliance

The ongoing jostling between the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reminds me of the childhood game we used to play with flowers and their petals — he loves me, he loves me not, he loves me, oh dear! He loves me NOT!

Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackaray addressing media in a press conference at Shiv Sena Bhavan. (Anshuman Poyrekar/HT Photo)

That is exactly what the Sena seems to have reduced the BJP to — singing for its supper and second-guessing whether the party loves it or fears it enough to forge an alliance at the Lok Sabha elections.

The results of elections to the three Hindi heartland states have almost reduced the BJP to begging the Sena for an alliance. It must be sweet victory for a party that was unceremoniously kicked out of the alliance days before the assembly elections in 2014 in the hope it would be decimated and leave the field clear for the BJP. But if Narendra Modi, at the peak of his charisma, could not sweep Maharashtra on his own then, it is hardly likely the BJP will do so on its own now. Suddenly, the BJP needs the Sena more than the other way round and Sena spokesperson Sanjay Raut made that clear when he reminded the BJP that they were not the ones to break the alliance.

Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis was right when he said the Sena and BJP cannot afford to go their separate ways in view of this renewed friendship between the Congress and the NCP but it is not the Shiv Sena’s style to give in easily without rubbing the noses of the forces who slighted them into the dirt.

So while the two parties might still come together in the end — there seems less and less doubt every day — the BJP must be prepared to concede more to the Shiv Sena than it was willing to do in the past. Which means they will have to go back to the 171-117 seat sharing ratio for the assembly elections and the Sena might extract a bit more from the BJP for the Lok Sabha polls – like seeking to sideline those BJP leaders who have been consistently targeting it in the past.

It could be a price the BJP might be willing to pay. This is because after defeats in the three Hindi heartland states (they form its core voter base), Maharashtra, which sends the second largest contingent of MPs to the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh, is a state they cannot afford to lose.

Then there is the matter of hurt pride. The last time — in the mid-1990s — when the BJP tried to kick the Sena in the teeth, Bal Thackeray made a few choice statements which had BJP leaders making a beeline to Matoshree to make amends. Thackeray ultimately conceded when Atal Bihari Vajpayee agreed to pay him a personal visit. Now the stakes are higher for the BJP — Uddhav Thackeray may not be his father but he may not settle for anything less than PM Modi coming calling on him. That will be a big come down for the BJP and half the battle won for the Sena.

But while it was not so difficult for Vajpayee to eat humble pie with Bal Thackeray, given Modi’s personality and stature, it will be a tall order to hope anything like that might happen now.

So where does that leave the BJP? Already in a weak position, the party should be hoping it does not get cannibalised by its own ally. As seems to be happening vis-à-vis the Sena’s seeming return to hardcore Hindutva when Uddhav visited Ayodhya last month and dismissed the BJP’s Ram Temple promise as “another election jumla.”

There were enough people who bought the Sena rhetoric even if it was just an election gimmick of its own. The Sena is on top now. It will aim to make the most of it.