Bracing to negotiate with a protectionist America
The Trump presidency will impact geopolitics most profoundly, starting with the transatlantic relationship and the future of the Nato.
Donald Trump has just won the most geopolitical of all American elections. This was a bitterly fought election in a highly divided nation. Kamala Harris came in far too late in the race, and Trump beat her fair and square. For Trump and his supporters, this will feel like a vindication of the election that they believe was stolen from them in 2020. Trump’s speech to his supporters is nevertheless a good beginning. He said he would help America heal and vowed to fight for every citizen.
It is, however, hard to overlook the fact that this election was fought over substantial differences on issues such as democracy, economy, immigration, women’s reproductive rights, trade, and, more broadly, geopolitics. The two candidates could not be further apart on all these issues. If Harris felt this election was a do-or-die thing for democracy, Trump felt the same way but from a different direction. He wanted to be sure that this time the election would not be “stolen” from him. On the economy, the people seem to have bought Trump’s arguments more than Harris’s. On immigration, Trump was seen as more likely to defend voters’ interests than Harris. Women’s reproductive rights probably mattered less than what the Democrats thought. Would it be right to say that the United States (US) was not ready for a woman president, a woman of colour at that? Less plausibly, did race and misogyny play a hidden part in the outcome? Analyses over the next few weeks may throw some light on this.
The Trump presidency will impact geopolitics most profoundly, starting with the transatlantic relationship and the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato). Both the European Union (EU) and Nato dreaded a second Trump presidency, but now that it is a reality, it remains to be seen how both will cope. Second, there is the war in Ukraine. Trump has boasted that he will bring the war to a halt in a matter of hours. The EU will see this as playing into Russian president Vladimir Putin’s hands. Suffice it to say that while Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy dreaded a Trump presidency, Putin may well be rubbing his hands in glee. Third will be the raging conflict in West Asia. While Trump may be inclined to support Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, he is shrewd enough to realise that the continuing war in Gaza is not in America’s interest; a number of Arab Americans would have voted for Trump in the hope that he would bring the conflict to an end. Fourth, the matter of America’s ties with China — Trump will struggle with two conflicting objectives: One, wanting to be seen as very tough vis-à-vis China and two, being the pragmatic statesman who makes a smart deal with China’s Xi Jinping. Which one will prevail? Fifth, on the question of international trade, there is genuine worry that Trump may wreak havoc. The World Trade Organisation (and its director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala) may not survive another Trump presidency. Trump has this crazy notion of a “reciprocal trade act” that would impose punitive tariffs not just on foes like China but also on friends such as the EU and India. Finally, will Trump dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act that the Biden Administration passed? Also, will Trump completely withdraw the US (the second biggest emitter of CO2 emissions after China) from the battle against the climate crisis?
From India’s point of view, the implications of a second Trump presidency relate, first and foremost, to purely foreign and strategic policy perspectives, Trump is good for us. Indeed, the strategic community in New Delhi was secretly hoping that he would prevail against Harris. The logic is that there is likely to be less hectoring about democracy and values, greater strategic convergence, and, of course, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s own personal equation with Trump is a major factor. However, from a purely trade and industrial policy perspective, India should be ready to face pressure. Trump has already described India as a big abuser of its soft trade policy. Worse, he sometimes talks of India and China in the same breath. Indeed, India should watch out for whether Trump ends up doing a grand bargain with Xi, implausible as it may seem. Should that happen, India’s strategic space will shrink in unexpected ways, which is why India’s recent rapprochement with China makes eminent sense.
Trump has a reputation for being disruptive. Disrupt he will, but the question is, can a world characterised by so much strategic turbulence already, deal with more disruption? We will soon find out.
Mohan Kumar is a former Indian ambassador to France, and currently, dean/professor at OP Jindal Global University. The views expressed are personal
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