4 districts have passed Covid-19 peak: state health department

A trend analysis of four districts in western Maharashtra shows a decline in the number of Covid-19 cases. However, the peak period of the virus, as evidenced by

A trend analysis of four districts in western Maharashtra shows a decline in the number of Covid-19 cases. However, the peak period of the virus, as evidenced by the data (see graphic) has been different for each of the districts.

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The case fatality rate of each of these four districts – Satara, Sangli, Solapur and Kolhapur - is higher than the state average.

State officials, however, believe that the Covid-19 infection has peaked in these districts .

Satish Pawar, director, state health department, said, “All the four districts have surpassed their peaks, which was somewhere in September - either in the beginning or in the middle. None of the districts saw an explosion of cases like Pune and Mumbai because of multiple reasons; because of the population density in these two major cities. Also, the number of cases being detected in the beginning was directly linked to the population density of a city or district, and later, with the floating population leaving Mumbai and returning to their native places, the infection spread instead of being concentrated in one city.”

Satara saw its peak with respect to the highest number of active Covid-19 cases on September 17, with nine thousand cases. Since then, cases have been on a decline.

Sangli recorded a recovery rate of 90.61% and a case fatality rate of 3.2%. As of Sunday, the district recorded 46,965 Covid-19 cases, of which 2,866 are active cases. Sangli reported its peak of active cases on September 19, with 10,000 cases. Since then, the curve has been irregular, but overall, on the decline.

Solapur reported a recovery rate of 89.28% and a case fatality rate of 3.2%. As of Sunday, the district reported 44,193 Covid-19 cases, of which 3,288 are active cases. The district saw its peak September 26, with 7,835 active cases. Since then, numbers have been declining.

Kolhapur has reported a recovery rate of 94.04% and case fatality rate of 3.4%. The total number of Covid-19 cases went up to 47,300, of which 1,207 are active cases. Kolhapur saw its peak on September 9, with 10,000 active cases.

Dr Pawar further added, “Also, as Mumbai bore the brunt of being densely populated, the infection spread widely during the initial months. Health experts were caught off guard which helped other districts to learn from the mistakes with regards to treatment protocol and management of beds.”

Saurabh Rao, divisional commissioner for Pune division, which encompasses these four districts, said, “Western Maharashtra and specifically these districts got affected in the initial months of the pandemic. Now, for the past three-four weeks the situation is getting better. We did see Satara report an alarming positivity rate which has gone down to below 15% since the past 10 days. Solapur has also stabilised and brought down its positivity rate to below 15% over the past two months. It was one of the worst affected districts and the administration and the medical faculties had come under heavy criticism. Kolhapur and Sangli have also seen the same journey.”

With respect to a higher case fatality rate, Rao agreed that these nearby districts are heavily dependent on Pune for critical health care.

He said, “The reasons for higher case fatality rate are late detection and declaration of Covid-19 cases and a difficulty in access to the medical facilities. We did see people travel to Pune for critical care or get delayed access to health care from these districts which contributed to a higher death number.”

He did say that the population density in these districts played a key role as the spread of infection, containment, liveability index, dwelling units size and category play a crucial role.