E-Paper
Australian Open 2025 men's draw, preview and prediction: Jannik Sinner, the man to beat in Melbourne?
Ahead of the start of season's first Grand Slam, we analyse each quarter of the draw and predict the winner of 2025 Australian Open
The passing of the baton to the next generation officially happened in 2024 with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner sharing the four Slams amid Rafael Nadal's retirement and Novak Djokovic's near misses. But are the duo truly ready to rule men's tennis? While Alcaraz did see a drop in his form in the final half of 2024, Sinner, despite the ongoing criticism over the doping scandal and the uncertainty over WADA's appeal, has been raking up records as he arrives in Melbourne as the most in-form player. But Novak Djokovic and his 10 titles certainly loom large.
FIRST QUARTER
Sinner returns to Melbourne, exactly 12 months after his maiden Slam haul, as the man to beat. For the better part of 2024, the Italian found himself in the midst of an off-court battle. He had received an anti-doping sanction and was stripped of his money and points sparking major criticism both from fans and fellow players on the tour. But that barely affected his game. Just weeks after the official revelation in late August, Sinner won his second major at the US Open, was confirmed as the year-end world No.1 after beating Djokovic in the Shanghai Masters Final, won the season's ATP Finals and eventually ended the season by guiding Italy to a second consecutive Davis Cup title.
Luck is certainly on Sinner's side as the 23-year-old has been handed an easy draw. Staring his campaign against Nicholas Jarry, he is the favourite to emerge as the semifinalist from the quarter, following a potential last clash against home favourite and top-ranked Aussie Alex de Minaur, who will likely have to negate 11th seed and 2023 runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas to set up the clash.
Quarterfinal: Sinner beats De Minaur
SECOND QUARTER
Taylor Fritz has been seeded fourth at the Australian Open, the highest he has been placed at any Slam in his career so far. And that certainly helped him stay clear of Sinner, Djokovic and Alcaraz, thus providing him the perfect opportunity to make the semifinals for the first time at a major.
After a string of first-week exits, Fritz had made the quarterfinal last year at the Melbourne Park. This year, he heads to the city on the back of an impressive United Cup win with United States, where he won four of his five singles matches. However, the road to semifinal won't be a walk in the park. He will be starting his campaign against returning fellow American Jenson Brooksby, who beat him back in the 2021 US Open, before setting up a potential clash against 16th seed Lorenzo Musettii. But his biggest threat in the quarter is the next seeded player in the draw, Daniil Medvedev, a three-time finalist, who although have to go past 25th seed Australian Alexei Popyrin, who had claimed a win in their Paris Masters meeting last year.
Quarterfinal: Fritz beats Medvedev
THIRD QUARTER
This section of the draw will garner most attention through the course of the two weeks with heavyweights Alcaraz and Djokovic on quarterfinal collision course. The Serb, who avenged his second straight Wimbledon final lost at the Paris Olympics, currently leads the head-to-head tie 4-3.
The 10-time champion, seeded seventh, has been handed a difficult draw in Melbourne. In the third round, he could either meet 26th seed Tomas Machac, who got the better of him in Geneva last year, or Reilly Opelka, who defeated him last week in Brisbane, before potentially meeting 2025 Brisbane champion Jiri Lehecka in the fourth round. The Spaniard, on the other hand, finds himself on the easy side of the quarter, with his nearest threat being 15th seed Jack Draper or 22nd seed Sebastian Korda in the fourth round.
Quarterfinal: Alcaraz beats Djokovic
FOURTH QUARTER
Australian Open 2025 could finally be Alexander Zverev's opportunity to grab, after being handed quite a favourable draw. His immediate threat will be a returning Nick Kyrgios in round three, followed by 14th seed Ugo Humbert in the fourth round.
The upper half of the quarter, however, is stacked with potential semifinalists, who could upset Zverev. Casper Ruud, who made the second week in Melbourne only once, in 2021, is the highest seeded (6) player in this section, amid the presence of 12th seed Tommy Paul, a former Australian Open semi-finalist, and 29th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Quarterfinal: Zverev beats Paul
Semifinal: Sinner beats Fritz; Alcaraz beats Zverev
Final: Sinner beats Alcaraz.
