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Can love for Roland Garros trump form? Iga Swiatek's French Open defence faces Rafael Nadal-like test
Iga Swiatek's clay dominance is in question after a tough season. With Gauff and Sabalenka in top form, Roland Garros 2025 could crown a new queen.
“Victory belongs to the most tenacious.” A quote attributed to Napoleon I—famously displayed on Court Philippe-Chatrier—became synonymous with Rafael Nadal. In 2022, Nadal endured a torrid clay court season, hampered by injuries. A rib-cage injury ruled him out of Monte Carlo and Barcelona, and he struggled to find rhythm in Madrid, bowing out in the quarters. Then came a third-round exit in Rome, as chronic foot pain resurfaced. Nadal arrived in Paris surrounded by uncertainty—not just about his title chances, but even his participation.
Yet, fuelled by grit, experience, and an undying love for Roland Garros, he defied the odds. With injections to numb his foot before the final, Nadal clinched what would become his last French Open title.
Over the course of her career, many parallels have been drawn between Iga Swiatek and her idol Nadal—especially given the Pole’s dominance on clay since her Roland Garros breakthrough in 2021. In the last four years, Swiatek has lost in Paris just once, completing a three-peat from 2022 to 2024, and earning the moniker “Queen of Clay.”
But since that last French Open triumph, Swiatek’s form has nosedived. She’s yet to win a title in 2025. Hopes were pinned on the clay season for a turnaround, but Swiatek ended it trophyless, falling out of the WTA top four for the first time since 2021. She lost in the Stuttgart quarters to Jelena Ostapenko, was outplayed by Coco Gauff in the Madrid semis, and was left in tears after a round-of-32 loss to Danielle Collins in Rome. For the first time in four years, Swiatek heads to Roland Garros not as the favourite.
Can Swiatek pull off a Nadal?
If Nadal’s 2022 run proved anything, it’s that Roland Garros rewards those who understand and master its rhythm—even when out of form or battling setbacks. That’s exactly what Swiatek must believe. But the 23-year-old will also need some luck, given the brutal draw.
She could potentially face Emma Raducanu in the second round, Marta Kostyuk in the third, and one of Elina Rybakina or Ostapenko in the fourth—both of whom hold a 6-0 head-to-head record against her. Rome champion Jasmine Paolini looms as a possible quarterfinal opponent, and world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka could await in the semis.
If Swiatek survives the first week, she could rewrite the pre-tournament narrative and reassert herself as the title favourite.
A first French Open crown for Sabalenka or Gauff?
On paper, this is the final we should expect. Swiatek’s slump has positioned both Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff as strong favourites, each winning tune-up events. But who has the better shot?
Ideally, Sabalenka. She reached the Stuttgart final, beat Gauff to win in Madrid, and looked composed—until she lost to Zheng Qinwen in Rome, in an erratic performance. Though she’s never made a French Open final, her 16-7 record in Paris and a relatively smooth early draw could set up a rematch with Zheng in the quarters.
Gauff, meanwhile, has had an up-and-down clay season. She made back-to-back finals, including a Rome title where she beat Swiatek and Mirra Andreeva (twice), and handled Zheng in the semis. Yet, her serve faltered toward the end—137 unforced errors in her last two Rome matches. Despite not being at her best, she still found ways to win.
She’ll need to be cautious against 2021 champion Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round, with Australian Open winner Madison Keys a possible quarterfinal opponent.
Prediction
Semifinals: Sabalenka def. Paolini; Gauff def. Andreeva
Final: Sabalenka def. Gauff
