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Avoid haste on shift to core CPI

Aligning inflation targeting with core instead of headline inflation needs a sound method to capture core inflation expectations first

FILE PHOTO: A woman selects tomatoes from a vegetable vendor, at a wholesale market in Navi Mumbai, India August 4, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo (REUTERS)
Published on Aug 27, 2024 09:08 PM IST
ByHT Editorial

Economic Survey on retail inflation: ‘Government and RBI’s intervention helped'

Economic Survey said in FY22 and FY23, COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions contributed to rising inflationary pressures globally.

A police officer walks past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India.(Reuters)
Updated on Jul 22, 2024 01:30 PM IST
ANI |

Core inflation at four-year low in FY24: Economic Survey

The survey said India successfully managed to keep retail inflation at 5.4% in FY24, the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic period

Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the survey in Parliament on Monday. (PTI)
Updated on Jul 22, 2024 01:07 PM IST

India inflation seen up in June due to soaring vegetable prices: Reuters poll

INDIA-ECONOMY-POLL:India inflation seen up in June due to soaring vegetable prices: Reuters poll

India inflation seen up in June due to soaring vegetable prices: Reuters poll
Published on Jul 10, 2024 07:55 AM IST
Reuters |

Inflation shadow on rate cut remains

With rate cuts in the US becoming increasingly unlikely this year, RBI will have one more reason to postpone its monetary easing.

At 8.7%, food inflation continues to be the biggest driver of overall inflation. What does all this mean for the economy and policy at large? (Sunny Sehgal)
Published on May 15, 2024 01:23 AM IST
ByHT Editorial

Inflation moderating, but can't discount risks ahead

Inflation management is a battle policymakers are more likely to lose because of climate or geopolitical shocks than textbook demand-supply imbalances.

At 4.9% in March compared to 5.1% in February, the retail inflation elephant, to use RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's analogy, continues to walk towards the forest. (MINT_PRINT)
Published on Apr 14, 2024 11:45 PM IST
ByHT Editorial

Norway CPI Slows More Than Forecast, Backing September Cut

Norway’s underlying inflation slowed more than expected last month, countering recent evidence of resilience in the Nordic economy and backing the central bank’s main scenario of an interest-rate cut in September.

HT Image
Published on Apr 10, 2024 02:25 PM IST
Bloomberg |

Both dovish and hawkish

RBI has maintained its stance on policy rate citing food inflation. But tying policy to food prices may force economy to sacrifice growth

The current growth momentum of the economy has given some policy buffer to RBI in keeping interest rates high and (potentially) erring on the side of caution.(PTI Photo)
Published on Apr 05, 2024 11:49 PM IST
ByHT Editorial

Food inflation limits choices before RBI

The headline number staying unchanged suggests that the MPC’s tone will also remain the same.

Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), for February was on expected lines at 5.1%. (MINT_PRINT)
Published on Mar 13, 2024 09:14 PM IST
ByHT Editorial

What do rising gas prices mean for the future of US inflation?

Surging gasoline prices and potential impacts on US inflation take center stage.

Will February’s gas price surge propel US inflation even higher?(AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)(AP)
Published on Mar 12, 2024 11:15 AM IST

Monetary policy has an inflation dilemma

Faced with low core inflation and high food inflation, RBI will likely tilt towards a longer disinflationary stance, to achieve the 4% CPI rate

India’s recent inflation has been a tale of two prices. Food inflation remains elevated at 7.6% but core inflation has dropped sharply to 3.6% in January 2024
Published on Feb 26, 2024 12:10 PM IST

2023: A year of food-price and climate shocks

The year was particularly challenging one, as the country was hit by intense heatwaves, erratic rains, floods, droughts, storms and cyclones

The country prohibited overseas shipments of wheat in March 2022, white rice in July this year and onions this month. (PTI)
Updated on Dec 25, 2023 04:35 PM IST

India’s FY24 economic outlook bright, strong but global headwinds remain: FinMin

While domestic macro fundamentals are strong and improving, downside risks arise from global headwinds and uncertainties in weather conditions

Union ministry of finance. (File photo/Mint.)
Published on Oct 23, 2023 07:15 PM IST
ByRajeev Jayaswal

High food prices may be the new normal

The spike in inflation, which will be painful for the poor, is a result of the climate crisis, making it difficult to control through monetary policy

High food inflation is more painful for the poor((REUTERS FILE PHOTO))
Published on Aug 15, 2023 09:15 PM IST
ByHT Editorial

Twin concerns lurk in the inflation print

The govt has implemented anti-inflation measures with mixed results, and with key assembly polls, it will be important to monitor their stance on price controls

It is to be noted here that retail inflation had also dropped sharply to 4.59 per cent in December, mainly due to declining food prices.(MINT_PRINT)
Published on Jul 13, 2023 10:12 PM IST
ByHT Editorial

Retail inflation cools to 18-month low 4.7%

India’s benchmark inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 4

Within food, prices of vegetables, egg, fish and meat and edible oils have seen a contraction. (PTI)
Updated on May 12, 2023 11:42 PM IST
By, New Delhi

Inflation eases below tolerance band of 6%

Headline inflation has once again come within the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band of 2-6% after two months, and is the lowest since November 2021

Representational image
Updated on Apr 13, 2023 02:20 AM IST
By, New Delhi

Don’t hit pause in the battle to contain inflation

The MPC’s decision to pause the rate hike cycle should not distract it from its objective of restoring price stability in the economy

Achieving the inflation target will require the Reserve Bank of India to focus on exerting downward pressure on domestic inflation, especially now that high core inflation has become entrenched in the system (Sonu Mehta/HT PHOTO)
Updated on Apr 07, 2023 08:59 PM IST
ByRajeswari Sengupta

Terms of Trade | What ails competitive capitalism in India

Viral Acharya's new paper, which is likely to create a big debate, suggests that the monopolistic practices of a few firms are contributing to inflation.

Acharya, essentially speaking, is arguing that the state enforces greater discipline on capital to get rid of economic inefficiencies. (Mint File Photo)
Published on Mar 31, 2023 07:55 PM IST

Many nations see new records as inflation bites hard: 10 points

New records are being witnessed in South Korea, Japan, Australia, Pakistan among other nations amid inflation. 

A sign with exchange currency values of the unofficial so-called 'Blue Dollar' --generally quoted at almost double the official rate-- is displayed in the window of a store in Buenos Aires, on August 1, 2022. - Inflation for the first half of this year alone topped 36 percent in Argentina, and is predicted to reach 80 percent by the year's end.(AFP)
Published on Aug 02, 2022 11:41 AM IST
By | Edited by

Govt considers windfall tax on oil and gas giants

The tax, which may be levied when oil prices, for instance, cross a certain level, will boost the government’s finances, and help fund efforts to protect vulnerable sections from rampant inflation.

This is not the first time India is considering a windfall tax. Policymakers flirted with the idea in 2018, and before that in 2008, when oil prices were on a high, and many Indian oil producers made a killing. Both times, the idea was abandoned, after it was strongly opposed by private oil companies. (AFP)
Updated on May 27, 2022 05:40 AM IST
ByRajeev Jayaswal, New Delhi

Vegetable prices up 60 percent, retail inflation hits 5-year high

Retail food prices, which make up nearly half of the India’s inflation basket, increased 14.12% in December from a year earlier, against 10.01% in November.

Core inflation – the non-food non-fuel component of CPI basket – has also increased marginally after declining for four consecutive months, even as the headline numbers were rising.(PTI)
Updated on Jan 13, 2020 09:23 PM IST
Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByHTC and agencies

Retail inflation at 5-yr high, crosses RBI’s comfort zone on soaring food prices

Core inflation – the non-food non-fuel component of CPI basket – has also increased marginally after declining for four consecutive months, even as the headline numbers were rising.

Blaming vegetable, meat and fish prices for the high food inflation, CARE Ratings Ltd chief economist Madan Sabnavis said that inflation should come down in January with the new onion crop in and prices moving down. (HT photo)
Updated on Jan 13, 2020 06:45 PM IST
Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore & Rajeev Jayaswal

Rise in CPI: How it impacts you

According to an SBI note, core CPI will go down and the headline CPI will increase, leading to convergence in coming months.

Price rise in essential goods over a long period hits those in lower income groups the hardest.(HT File Photo/ Representative image)
Updated on Jun 17, 2019 10:43 AM IST
Hindustan Times, Gurugram | By

Will the RBI cut rates again?

A decelerating economy in the midst of elections can create problems for the incumbent political party

On Thursday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India, which started its bimonthly meeting yesterday, will announce its decision on the policy rate(REUTERS)
Updated on Apr 02, 2019 08:35 PM IST
Hindustan Times | By

Rate cut: RBI’s growth gamble

While welcome, the central bank’s move to cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point, is a gamble of sorts. Or actually, three gambles, a radical development for an organisation that rarely, if at all, takes chances.

India’s central bank has traditionally been conservative. That conservatism means it usually back-ends rate cuts — waiting for the macro and micro to turn conducive before reducing rates rather than doing so in anticipation. This time, it has front-ended the rate cut.(Aniruddha Chowdhury/Mint)
Updated on Feb 08, 2019 02:42 PM IST
Hindustan Times | By

Rupee slips further, dips 9 paise to 71.28 against USD

At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened lower at 71.38 and fell further to touch the day’s low of 71.53.

The rupee Monday weakened by 9 paise to close at 71.28 against the US dollar.(REUTERS)
Updated on Jan 22, 2019 09:51 AM IST
Mumbai | ByPress Trust of India

Modi’s MSP decision next week likely to set direction for interest rates

Modi’s move will be key to the RBI’s next rate decision, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. A sharp increase may change the policy committee’s view of currently-benign food prices outlook and compound the pressures from core inflation.

Modi has promised to double farm incomes by 2022. In his February budget, he pledged to boost farmers’ returns by increasing the government’s purchase prices for crops by more than 50% of the output cost.(PTI Photo)
Updated on Jun 21, 2018 04:49 PM IST
Bloomberg | BySubhadip Sircar

High inflation can be a cause for worry for the government in an election year

Higher cost of borrowing will dampen private investment, which can decelerate the process of economic recovery as elections come closer.

Cutting prices through lowering taxes will entail a reduction in the fiscal resources available for spending. Persistence of high inflation will also lead to the risk of Minimum Support Prices before the elections(Bloomberg)
Updated on Jun 13, 2018 05:36 PM IST
Hindustan Times | By

Track core inflation to predict RBI’s next move on interest rates

Commentary from members of RBI’s rate-setting panel show they are more focused on core inflation -- the gauge that strips out volatile food and fuel components, than the headline inflation figure.

The RBI, which Bloomberg economists Tom Orlik and Justin Jimenez rate among the top 3 central banks that surprise the most, has a mandate to keep headline inflation around 4% in the medium term.(Aniruddha Chowdhury/Mint)
Updated on Apr 24, 2018 01:34 PM IST
Bloomberg | ByAnirban Nag
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