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BNP sailing to victory in Bangladesh, Tarique Rahman set to be PM | 10 key points
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has a large lead in more than two-thirds of the constituencies
In the ongoing vote count for Bangladesh's parliamentary elections — the first since the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina's entrenched regime after student-led protests — an alliance led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) looks set to form the government.
Bangladesh election results: 10 key points
1. Who is winning? The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has a large lead, winning more than two-thirds of the 299 constituencies that went to polls; polling for one seat was postponed due to the death of a candidate.
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2. Islamist party performance: The Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance has won 70 constituencies, according to unofficial results as reported by news agency ANI, as of early Friday morning. Independent candidates and other parties have collectively won the other seats.
3. Who will be next PM of Bangladesh? BNP chairman Tarique Rahman, son of the late ex-PM Khaleda Zia, requested that celebrations be postponed out of respect for the passing of his mother. He is set to become the next PM. The party has called for prayers for Khaleda Zia after the Friday congregational prayer. Zia remained the most significant contender against Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League, which was barred from this election. Zia-led BNP had boycotted the 2024 election.
4. End of ‘Battle of Begums’ era: With this election, Bangladesh ushered in its most pivotal polls in years, as it enters a new chapter from the classic 'Battle of Begums' era of Hasina vs Zia. Hasina is self-exiled in India, and has called the election a farce. The results' preliminary figures suggest a significant shift in Bangladesh's political landscape, with the BNP alliance appearing to surpass the halfway mark needed to form the government.
5. How many voted: Nearly 128 million people were registered to vote, but the turnout was low at around 40%, on February 12. Counting began soon after close of voting at 4:30, with early trends coming in around midnight and results likely to be clear by Friday morning, Election Commission officials said.
6. What next for Sheikh Hasina? Hasina’s party, the Bangladesh Awami League remains banned, and she is in self‑imposed exile in Delhi. This has meant Dhaka is unhappy with Delhi, as she has been sentenced to death over “crimes against humanity” during the 2024 protests but India has so far not exradited her.
7. What interim govt said: "This election is not just another routine vote,” Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, head of an interim government installed after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, said. “The public awakening we witnessed against long‑standing anger, inequality, deprivation and injustice finds its constitutional expression in this election,” he added.
8. July 2024 Charter okayed too: In parallel with the parliamentary polls, there was a referendum on a set of constitutional reforms as part of the ‘July 2024 Charter’. This was cleared with a majority Yes vote. The reforms include always establishing a neutral interim government for election periods; restructuring parliament into a bicameral legislature; increasing women’s representation; strengthening judicial independence; and imposing a two-term limit on the prime minister.
9. Why India is watching keenly: New Delhi is in a delicate diplomatic position, forced into a significant departure from the decade-long collab with Hasina’s Awami League. The return of a BNP-led government, traditionally seen as more aligned with Islamist elements and less cooperative on cross-border security, presents a complex challenge for India. While India has maintained that it will work with whoever the people of Bangladesh choose, the presence of Hasina on Indian soil adds friction.
10. What about the minorities, and Pakistan? The aftermath of Hasina's departure also brought fresh turmoil for religious minorities in the Muslim-majority country. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council documented over 2,000 incidents of communal violence between August and December 2024, according to the Associated Press. India's foreign ministry has suggested that Bangladesh is downplaying "a disturbing pattern of recurring attacks" on Hindus. Bangladesh has described India's criticism as "systematic attempts" to stoke anti-Bangladesh sentiments.
What next for Bangladesh-India ties?
Bangladesh had boycotted the T20 World Cup of cricket being co-hosted by India, after PM Narendra Mod's ruling party BJP's leaders and rightwing Hindutva vigilantes objected to Kolkata Knight Riders, an IPL team owned by actor Shah Rukh Khan, contracting a Bangladeshi Muslim player.
Pakistan later joined forces with Bangladesh at the International Cricket Council (ICC) that's led by India's home minister Amit Shah's son Jay Shah. Pakistan anyhow has been growing closer to Bangladesh with direct flights resumed recently and a possible defence deal.
But India has continued its engagement with the BNP and Tarique Rahman, and hopes to retain its traditional ties with Dhaka under a new regime, particularly as China seeks influence.
