Kamala Harris surprisingly becomes favorite to win WH in top election forecast as Nate Silver's final prediction changes

Kamala Harris, the daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, may create history by becoming the first US female and Black President.

Published on: Nov 5, 2024, 19:52:13 IST

By Shweta Kukreti

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It's indeed a big day for US Vice President Kamala Harris, the daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, who may create history by becoming the first US female and Black President.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had razor-thin margins of victory in the contest, which has long been neck and neck. (AFP)

As the stakes are high for the Democratic contender the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight surprisingly declared her the front-runner to win the White House on election day.

Both candidates have had razor-thin margins of victory in the contest, which has long been neck and neck.

For around two weeks, FiveThirtyEight listed former President Donald Trump as their favorite contender to claim the White House. On Monday, it discovered that out of 100 simulations, Trump won 53 times while Harris won 47 times.

However, when an update was released on election day, Harris emerged as the clear favorite by winning 50 times out of 100 over Trump's 49.

Using the model, which takes into account economic, demographic, and polling data, FiveThirtyEight predicted Harris as winner on October 17, when she won 52 times out of 100, compared to Trump's 48 times out of 100.

Notably, the polling agency stated that the odds of there not being an Electoral College winner are fewer than one in a hundred.

Read more about US Elections 2024: Catch all the newsmakers, detailed explainers and deep analysis of the US Elections

Here's what Nate Silver's model say about Harris

Nate Silver, the creator of FiveThirtyEight, has also officially declared Harris a winner even though he is no longer connected to the site. In his final election prediction with FiveThirtyEight's “direct descendant”, he predicted that Harris would win by a slim margin.

According to Silver's model, the former president won 49.65 percent of cases out of 80,000 simulations, compared to 50.015 percent for the US VP. The outcome of about 270 simulations was a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

HT in US: Special Coverage of the American elections by Prashant Jha

Harris campaigned in Pennsylvania the day before the election. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is ranked as the most valuable among the battleground states that will decide the winner of the Electoral College. Meanwhile, Trump conducted rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, before concluding his election campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday night.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Shweta Kukreti
Shweta Kukreti has over 8 years of experience in covering Indian and world politics. She joined the Hindustan Times in 2024 and is primarily assigned to the US desk. She currently works as Deputy Chief Content Producer and reports on a wide range of topics, including US politics, immigration issues (especially H-1B visa) and major global events. Shweta strongly emphasizes team operations, which encompasses monitoring news, delegating tasks, editing, developing comprehensive coverage strategies, and crafting engaging, and data-informed narratives. She received the Digi Star Award at the Hindustan Times within a year of joining for her broad coverage of US politics. In 2025, she earned both a promotion and a redesignation, a significant achievement recognising her contributions and the strong value she brings to the team. She has previously worked with the Indian Express, HTDS, ANI and Republic World. Seniors in all the media organisations recognised her work. Regarding education, she earned a BA (Hons.) in Political Science and a master's degree from Delhi University, and she pursued a PG Diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Institution of Mass Communication (IIMC). She also holds a diploma in Women's Empowerment and Development from IGNOU University and a French certification course from Alliance Française de Delhi. If not working, you can find her exploring the hills and engaging in adventurous activities in Rishikesh and Himachal Pradesh. She loves to play badminton, volleyball, and chess, and spend time with her friends and family. She also enjoys spiritual activities.Read More

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