The US and Iran have sharply increased attacks at sea, with both sides targeting vessels linked to the other. The latest escalation comes after Iran fired several ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a US Navy destroyer near the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the two US warships successfully avoided the missiles and no American personnel were injured.
The US then struck three Iranian oil vessels. CENTCOM said one tanker was hit off Kharg Island, the main Iranian oil-export hub that handled about 90% of Iran’s crude exports before the war. Another tanker was struck near Jask, while a third, unladen vessel was hit in the Gulf of Oman after its crew was ordered to leave the ship.
Why are the US and Iran attacking oil tankers?
The US says the tanker attacks are meant to punish Iran economically. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said the strikes were a response to Iran firing at two US ships. He said that if Iran attacks American vessels, the US will impose an even higher economic cost by targeting Iranian ships.
Iran says the US warships were targeted because they were involved in the naval blockade of Iran. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its missiles were aimed at the US aircraft carrier and destroyer because they were “harassing Iranian ships” and helping enforce the blockade.
Iran targets US warships near Strait
{{/usCountry}}Iran says the US warships were targeted because they were involved in the naval blockade of Iran. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its missiles were aimed at the US aircraft carrier and destroyer because they were “harassing Iranian ships” and helping enforce the blockade.
Iran targets US warships near Strait
{{/usCountry}}The choice of targets is significant because the US aircraft carrier is a major part of its military campaign against Iran. Defence analyst Wolfgang Pushtai told Al Jazeera that Iran did not attack ordinary warships but targeted a missile destroyer and an aircraft carrier, which he described as the “backbone” of the US campaign. He said the US retaliation was therefore not surprising.
US targets Iran's oil money
The main reason oil tankers have become targets is money. Washington says the Iranian tankers it attacked are part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that helps finance Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its regional allies.
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Iran has used a shadow fleet to continue selling oil despite US sanctions. These vessels help Tehran move its crude and generate revenue while attempting to avoid restrictions imposed by Washington.
Oil revenue has become even more important for Iran since the US began blockading Iranian ports in April. The blockade has made it harder for Tehran to export its oil normally, increasing the importance of alternative shipping networks.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
The Strait of Hormuz is at the centre of the conflict because it is one of the world's most important oil routes. Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil moved through the strait every day, equal to roughly 20% of global oil supplies, according to the information cited by Al Jazeera.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Israeli attacks began on February 28. Tehran used control over the waterway as a way to pressure the US and respond to the attacks.
How much oil is moving through Hormuz?
There is a major disagreement over how much oil is actually moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The US says the waterway remains open and claims dozens of ships carrying millions of barrels of oil are still passing through it every day.
Bessent claimed that around 17 million barrels of crude oil a day had recently been shipped out. The claim was reported by the UK newspaper The Times, but Al Jazeera said it could not independently verify the figure.
President Donald Trump has also claimed that the US is in “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. However, shipping data suggests traffic remains far below normal levels.
Data from marine analytics company Kpler showed very few vessels crossing the strait recently. Kpler recorded just six vessels on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, with the 10-day average standing at only 13 vessels a day.
Could oil prices hit $100?
This uncertainty over shipping is important for oil prices. If fewer tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supplies could become tighter, putting further upward pressure on crude prices.
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Oil prices have already jumped sharply since the war began. Brent crude futures closed at $96.28 a barrel on Friday, their highest level since July 24. Brent was trading at around $70 a barrel before the war. That means crude prices have risen by roughly $26 a barrel, or around 37%, since the conflict began.
The $100-a-barrel level is now clearly within reach. Brent is already only about $3.72 below $100, meaning another relatively small jump in crude prices could take it above that level.
Iran warns oil could cross $100
Iranian officials and analysts have warned that oil could move above $100 if the conflict gets worse. Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, said Iran cannot allow US attacks on its oil tankers to go unanswered.
Dareini specifically warned that Iran has plans to push oil prices above $100 a barrel. He told Al Jazeera that Tehran has its own plans to ensure oil prices “shoot up” beyond the $100 level.
What does higher oil mean for Americans?
The consequences are already being felt by US consumers. US oil and gas prices have surged as the conflict threatens energy supplies.
Diesel prices in the US reached a record on Friday. The national average climbed to $5.85 per gallon, or about $1.55 per litre, for the first time ever.
Will the US-Iran conflict get worse?
Experts believe the latest tanker attacks could mean an even longer conflict. Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East studies programme at George Washington University, described the latest US-Iran exchanges as another escalation in the six-month-long conflict.
Azodi believes neither side is ready to back down. He said giving in would make either side look weak, leaving escalation as the likely option unless a political agreement is reached.
That could mean more attacks at sea and more risks for civilians. Azodi warned that continued fighting could lead to miscalculations, more clashes between US and Iranian forces and additional civilian casualties, particularly in Iran.
The US could send more troops to the region, but Iran is unlikely to simply stop resisting. Azodi said Tehran is expected to continue fighting the blockade and try to impose further costs on the US.
The wider battle is essentially about which side can force the other to back down first. Azodi said the winner could ultimately be the side that is able to withstand more economic and military punishment.
The tanker attacks therefore risk creating a cycle of retaliation. US attacks on Iranian oil shipments can hurt Iran's ability to earn money, while Iranian attacks on ships and the Strait of Hormuz can threaten global oil supplies and raise prices.
For oil markets, the biggest risk is further disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. If the waterway remains heavily restricted or attacks on tankers increase, the supply of oil reaching international markets could fall further.
That makes $100 oil a real possibility, but it is not guaranteed. Brent is already at $96.28, and another escalation could push it above $100. However, the final price will depend on how much oil can still move through the strait, how long the disruption lasts and whether the US and Iran find a diplomatic way to stop the fighting.
For now, the tanker war is about more than individual ships. The US is using attacks and sanctions to cut off Iran's oil revenue, while Iran is using its ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to raise the economic cost of the war for Washington and the wider world.