The political crisis that gripped Pakistan following an order by the country’s Supreme Court reopening graft cases against politicians deepened on Saturday. A non-bailable arrest warrant was issued against law minister Babar Awan but withdrawn after he appeared before a court. President Asif Ali Zardari chaired a meeting aimed at preventing his government from falling.
What is India’s stake in the political fate of the beleaguered Pakistani president?
When Zardari came to power, he expressed impatience with the policy of using terrorism to extract concessions on Kashmir. He also opposed the country’s military-mullah nexus.
But over time Zardari showed an inability to convert views into policy. Frustrated at the failure to put the 26/11 perpetrators behind bars, Manmohan Singh said recently that the military was Pakistan’s “most important force” and “I don’t know who to deal with”.
Pakistani and Indian analysts broadly agree that whether Zar-dari stays or goes will make only minimal difference. He was and will be too weak to deliver on any peace agreement with India.
However, his fall could further weaken Islamabad’s commitment against terrorism says, Pakistani editor Arif Nizami.
“The US’s new AfPak policy could be under threat,” says ex-foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. And Taliban gains would be detrimental to India.
{{/usCountry}}“The US’s new AfPak policy could be under threat,” says ex-foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. And Taliban gains would be detrimental to India.
{{/usCountry}}Zardari’s fate is seen as a testament to the state of Pakistan. “The US experiment of trying to broad base Pakistan’s struggle against terror,” says ex-foreign secretary Kanwar Sibal, “is a process in reverse.”
The Pakistan formula remains unchanged, says ex-envoy to Pakistan, G. Parthasarathy. “A civilian regime too weak. A military which plays the same game.” He adds, “Zardari tried to challenge the conventional wisdom. And that is why he couldn’t stay.”
With inputs from Pramit Pal Chaudhuri in New Delhi.