View from the Himalayas | Saurya flight crash: What plagues Nepal’s civil aviation sector

While Nepal’s mountainous terrain makes flying difficult, it’s the policymakers on the ground who are far more responsible for its unsafe skies.

The government of newly elected Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli faced its most serious crisis on Wednesday, when a Saurya Airlines flight crashed shortly after takeoff at Kathmandu’s Tribhuvan International Airport, killing 18 people on board. Manish Ratna

People look at the wreckage of a Saurya Airlines aircraft, a day after it crashed during take off at Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu on July 25, 2024. (Photo by Prabin RANABHAT / AFP)(AFP)

Shakya, the flight captain who was rescued from the burning wreckage, is the lone survivor.

The Bombardier CRJ-200 aircraft was carrying two crew members and 17 others. Ironically enough, 15 of those who perished were members of the airlines’ technical team, who were on their way on C-Checks (or Comprehensive Checks) conducted every 18 months to two years or after certain flight hours to ensure that a plane is flight-worthy.

The ill-fated flight was bound for Nepal’s major tourism hub Pokhara, less than half an hour away from Kathmandu. The C-Checks, which can last for up to two weeks, were to be conducted at the Chinese-built (and vastly underutilised) Pokhara International Airport, with a spacious hangar and a runway. Saurya Airlines operates flights to five destinations in Nepal and has a fleet of three 50-seat Bombardier CRJ-200 jets.

The reason behind the crash remains unknown. An aviation expert has not ruled out the possibility of engine failure during the takeoff in the twin-engine aircraft. When that happens, the aircraft yaws towards the failed engine; the crashed plane yaws sharply to the right. In a widely shared video, the Bombardier plane is seen veering perilously away from its flight path seconds after takeoff before it hit the ground and burst into flames.

Following the crash, the Oli government held an emergency Cabinet meeting and formed a five-member investigation team, giving it a 45-day deadline to probe the cause of the accident. However, there are already apprehensions that the probe may not result in tangible safety measures.

The question in everyone’s mind here now is: How safe are Nepal’s skies? As important, what can be done to make flying safer?

Here’s the broader context

More than 90% of fatal air crashes in Nepal since 1962 are classified as CFIT, or Controlled Flight into Terrain, meaning an airworthy aircraft collides with mountains behind due to poor visibility, according to the data mined by the Nepali Times last January.

But the Saurya flight on Wednesday and another major crash in January last year – a Yeti Airlines flight, as it prepared to land at Pokhara – both occurred on a clear day and at airports with all modern navigational equipment. The crash on Wednesday clearly was not a case of CFIT, therefore.

So, an early question: Was the aircraft in poor shape?

The Civil aviation minister Badri Prasad Pandey has since gone on record, saying 50 hours of flight time was still left for the full technical test (or broadly, C-Checks) of the Saurya Airlines plane. However, many others argue that the aircraft perhaps had unresolved technical issues and the airline in question doesn’t always follow the safety protocol strictly.

It must also be noted that an overwhelming number of daily air traffic in Nepal is in Tarai airports, which are in the flat plains, besides Pokhara and Kathmandu, and not in the mountain airports. The Tarai airports across the country - from Bhadrapur and Biratnagar in the east; Janakpur and Simara in central Tarai; and Bhirahawa, Nepalgunj and Dhangadhi in the west - are also used by Indians to travel into or from Kathmandu. These airports in the districts bordering West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have witnessed the least number of fatal crashes.

After a massive public outcry on Wednesday, Pandey said that the fact-finding team will make detailed recommendations on air safety and that the latest accident has put further pressure on the authorities to improve air safety. Already, the European Union has banned Nepali carriers from its airspace, meaning no Nepali airline is allowed to operate flights in Europe, one of Nepal’s major tourism markets and also home to Nepal’s fast-growing diaspora and student body.

The Nepali Times article also points out that between 1962 and June 2022, there had been 863 fatalities in 71 air crashes and most deaths are attributed to accidents involving CFIT. Nearly all serious crashes occurred on mountain routes, and mostly during the monsoon.

Flying to Nepal’s mountain airports – some described as table-top airfields – is difficult due to treacherous terrain and weather. However, it is the weak regulatory oversight that has been cited in air crash investigation reports as additional reasons for most accidents, according to those who are keeping a close tab on Nepal’s flight safety. Almost every past investigation blamed violation of the regulation of flying VFR (Visual Flying Rules) at all times in the mountains as the primary reason for crashes, according to The Times.

Despite upgrades of facilities in busy airports such as Kathmandu and Pokhara, a major area of concern is policy conflict that has been consistently overlooked. The Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal, or the CAAN, the key government body with oversight of civil aviation, is responsible for promoting both the business and regulating sides of flying in Nepal. And successive ministers of civil aviation and senior bureaucrats have routinely quashed moves to split the CAAN and establish two separate government agencies to safeguard conflicting interests.

Here's a case in point. The day after the crash, The Kathmandu Post pointed out in its front-page news, thatWednesday’s crash was the seventh under Pradip Adhikari, the director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN), who fits into all political systems. And the headline read: “Planes are coming down. Nepali state is least bothered.” The greatest single factor in airplane disasters is human error. In Nepal’s case, those who are on the ground seem to be far more responsible for errors caused by the lack of oversight and for not following international best practices in civil aviation.

Akhilesh Upadhyay is former Editor-in-Chief of The Kathmandu Post and a Senior Fellow at the Strategic Affairs Center, IIDS, a Kathmandu-based think tank.