Bihar Exit Polls 2020: Pollsters predict RJD-led alliance may win
Mahagathbandhan, the opposition coalition led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, could win the Bihar Assembly Election 2020, several exit polls indicated on Saturday as the three-phased elections ended. The Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance is projected to get about 120 seats in the 243-member house by the Times Now C-Voter exit poll. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat projected 118-138 to the RJD alliance, 5 to 8 for the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and said that others may get 3 to 6 seats. The ABP C-Voter exit poll said that the Grand Alliance is likely to get anywhere between 108-131 seats in the Bihar assembly. The LJP, according to ABP C-Voter, could win 1-3 seats. Mahagathbandhan could get 108-123 seats, NewsX-DV Research projected. The Grand Alliance could win 180 seats, according to Today’s Chanakya.
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The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fronted by chief minister Nitish Kumar could fall short of a clear majority in the assembly elections. The Times Now C-Voter exit poll said the NDA could end up with only 116 seats, seven short of the majority mark of 122. The Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit polls projected anything between 91 and 117 seats for the NDA, while the ABP C-Voter exit poll indicated the NDA could get between 104 and 128 seats in the Bihar Assembly Election 2020. According to NewsX-DV Research, Nitish the NDA could get 110-117 seats. Among the pollsters, Today’s Chanakya indicated just 55 seats for the NDA.
Today’s Chanakya exit polls also suggested that the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan would be far ahead of the ruling NDA with 44% vote share. The NDA’s vote share was pegged at 34%, it indicated.The India Today-Axis My India added that the Tejashwi Yadav had emerged as the first choice for the chief minister’s chair with support from 44% respondents. Nitish Kumar, who has been Bihar’s chief minister for 14 years, came next with 35% respondents supporting his return for another term. The LJP’s Chirag Paswan was the first preference for just 7% people, it added.
The three-phased Bihar assembly elections, which started on October 28 and ended on Saturday, saw the lead campaigners from both the sides trading bitter accusations. All the political parties in the fray brought in their star campaigners, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence minister Rajnath Singh, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, BJP president JP Nadda and Congress’ Rahul Gandhi, to woo voters in the high-stake polls. Counting of votes recorded in hundreds of thousands of computerised machines will begin early on November 10 and results are expected by noon.
Exit polls, a poll of voters taken immediately after they exit the polling stations, have often gotten the number of seats wrong in the past. To rule, a party or an alliance needs to win 122 seats. In 2015, the Bihar elections were held over five-phases through October-November before the end of the tenure of the prior legislative assembly on November 29. The RJD emerged as a single largest party with 80 seats, followed by the JD(U) with 71 seats and the BJP with 53 seats. In terms of vote share, BJP came first with 24.4%, followed by RJD with 18.4% and JD (U) with 16.8% and Congress got 6.7%.
The RJD contested in 144 seats, Congress in 70, and CPI(ML) in 19 in the Bihar Assembly Election 2020. From the NDA, the JD(U) fought on 115 seats and BJP in 110.
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In the last Bihar assembly polls in 2015, there was a fight between the NDA without Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal(United) and the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance. The JD(U) was part of the Mahagathbandhan, which also included the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress. This year, the JD(U) is now with the BJP.
The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which was part of the NDA in 2015, has decided to go it alone. The Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), another former ally of the BJP, has joined hands with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) to form the Grand Secular Democratic Front this year.
The NDA comprises the Janata Dal(United), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahani. Apart from Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, the Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) form the other constituents of the Grand Alliance.
The Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA), headed by Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) chief Rajesh Ranjan, who is popularly known as Pappu Yadav, and Azad Samaj Party of Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad is one of the other formations in the fray. Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) consists of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP), All Indian Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Jantantrik Party and Samajwadi Janata Dal Democratic.