Another day, another rain delay in national capital

The delays this year — which altogether may be one of the latest yet — have led to a summer of an unusual spell of high-heat, high-humidity conditions across much of north-west India.

June 15. June 29. July 10.

Children take bath on a hot summer day, in New Delhi on Saturday. (ANI Photo)

In what is the most delayed arrival of monsoon in the 17 years since records have been made available, the summer rains have now defied yet another prediction. The monsoon was meant to arrive on Saturday, with some pre-monsoon showers the day before – but neither days saw a drop of rain. Instead, in a bulletin later on Saturday, the India Meteorological Department said the rains will take “another 24 hours” to reach the Capital.

The IMD has shared monsoon onset dates since 2004. Typically, the onset occurs on June 29. The most delayed onset prior to this year was in 2006, when rains arrived on July 9.

The delays this year — which altogether may be one of the latest yet — have led to a summer of an unusual spell of high-heat, high-humidity conditions across much of north-west India.

For the past 10 days, Delhi and its surroundings have reeled under near-heatwave conditions. IMD officials, however, added that the wait may finally be over as monsoon winds reached Delhi on Friday. The easterly winds, which originate in the Bay of Bengal, extended northwestwards, reaching up to Delhi, Haryana and East Rajasthan on July 10, the IMD said.

“Relative humidity has also increased over the region. Hence, the conditions continue to remain favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over Delhi, remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh, some more parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan during next 24 hours,” the bulletin stated.

RK Jenamani, senior scientist, IMD, said a prediction was made for July 10 but added that its “realisation each time is different”. “The easterly winds that bring the monsoon showers have reached the northwestern region including Delhi. Rain is expected between late Friday evening and Sunday noon. This is why we have given another 24 hours to officially declare its onset. It has already rained in parts of Punjab and Rajasthan while Haryana, south Punjab, south Rajasthan and Delhi are yet to get rainfall,” he said.

Showers will intensify in Delhi as well as over Haryana, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh between July 11 and 13, the bulletin said.

The monsoon is arguably India’s most watched weather event, influencing much of the country’s farm sector where a vast majority of fields are still rain-fed. But predicting how it behaves has often been rife with errors, particularly for the north-western region where weather scientists say conditions are typically volatile.

This year, the rains were first predicted to make a record early march across the country, initially predicted to hit Delhi by June 13-15. But in the latter half of the month, the progress slowed down before it eventually stalled and entered a three-week long break phase.

Independent weather forecasters now also say that monsoon showers are likely to arrive in Delhi on July 11 and will continue over the following days. Mahesh Palawat, vice president (climate change and meteorology) at Skymet weather, a private forecaster, said monsoon currents have reached Delhi-NCR and there is also a rise in humidity. “These conditions help cloud formation that triggers rainfall. Clouds are likely to be seen over the Capital on Sunday resulting in showers around noon. Though heavy rainfall is not expected, short spells of ‘moderate’ rain are likely over the next few days. This will also bring the mercury down to around 34°C,” said Palawat.