Forecast flip-flop: IMD misses again as unwarned showers pound Delhi

twice during the day on Saturday, there were also details on imminent rain shared less than an hour before it actually started raining in the area

There was no alert for rain from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) till Friday evening, yet incessant rain pounded Delhi-NCR from late night into Saturday morning. The weather agency’s forecast miss blindsided residents who had to scramble through traffic snarls, transport shortages, and general chaos on Saturday morning, which was also Raksha Bandhan — a day that is synonymous with heavy traffic.

In reality, Delhi saw widespread rainfall, from Friday night to Saturday evening, clocking 104.7 mm of rain. (Hindustan Times)

Adding to the confusion, IMD cycled through three different alerts in less than 12 hours. A red alert at 7am, which was downgraded to yellow by 10am, then upgraded again to orange by noon.

By evening, IMD had settled on a yellow alert for the rest of Saturday and green alert for Sunday and the week ahead with possibility of light rain and thundershowers in Delhi-NCR. Queries regarding the fluctuating forecasts to IMD remained unanswered.

To be sure, IMD issues green, yellow, orange and red alerts to warn people of adverse weather conditions, in an increasing order of intensity.

“Partly cloudy skies will persist for the next couple of days (till Monday) with the possibility of light rains and thundershowers,” an official said on Saturday.

Meanwhile, twice during the day on Saturday, there were also details on imminent rain shared less than an hour before it actually started raining in the area.

In reality, Delhi saw widespread rainfall, with 26 mm recorded between 8.30am and 5.30pm Saturday, on top of heavy overnight showers. The Safdarjung station — the city’s benchmark — logged 78.7 mm in the 24 hours ending Friday morning, while Pragati Maidan saw 100.3 mm and Lodi Road 80.7 mm. This brought total rainfall from Friday night to Saturday evening to 104.7 mm..

Weather experts attributed the showers to the southward shift of the monsoon trough and a cyclonic circulation over the region, conditions that typically bring moderate to heavy rain to Delhi, Haryana, west UP, and northeast Rajasthan.

“Till now, the monsoon trough was close to the foothills of the Himalayas, causing heavy rains in parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Today, the axis of the monsoon trough shifted southwards and there was also a cyclonic circulation over the area. This caused moderated to heavy rains in west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and northeast Rajasthan,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Skymet Weather.

Although IMD has a green alert for the next few days, Palawat said rainy conditions are likely to persist for the next few days.

“We can expect isolated and scattered rain on Sunday as well. However, there will be a marginal increase thereafter and moderate rain spells can be expected on August 11 and 12,” said Palawat.

The rain had one positive effect: Delhi’s air quality index (AQI) also improved to ‘satisfactory’ at 81 on Saturday after staying in ‘moderate’ for the past three days, and is forecasted to remain so for the next few days.