Migration added more to Delhi’s population than births: Economic Survey
Migration added 283,000 people to Delhi’s population in 2021,more than double the 101,000 number contributed by births adjusted for deaths, as per Delhi’s Economic Survey 2022-23
Migration added 283,000 people to Delhi’s population in 2021,more than double the 101,000 number contributed by births adjusted for deaths. 2021 is the second year in a row when migration has become a bigger factor in Delhi’s population growth – total population is estimated to have reached 20.7 million in 2021 – than natural births and deaths, as per Delhi’s Economic Survey 2022-23.
These estimates – the final numbers will only be available as and when a census is done – suggest that the reverse migration from Delhi during the 68-day nationwide lockdown which was imposed from 25 March 2020 was temporary.
Delhi’s Economic Survey publishes demographic trends based on population projections made by the National Commission on Population and the birth and death rates published by the Civil Registration System (CRS). The former works under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare while the latter’s reports are produced by the office of the Registrar General of India, which works under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), both under the Union government. The Delhi government’s Economic Survey has used the data from these two to produce estimates of growth in population naturally and due to migration.
The estimates made by the Survey show that natural population growth in Delhi stayed relatively stable for a long time before the pandemic, in the 200000-250000 per year mark. This changed dramatically when it decreased to just 159000 additions in 2020 and further to just 101000 in 2021. The growth in migration was increasing almost every year, but not as fast as it has since 2020. Growth in Delhi’s population due to migration increased from 158000 in 2019 to 220000 in 2020 and 283000 in 2021.
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How did migration growth surpass natural growth? The Survey’s estimates are based on a simple calculation. It uses the mid-year population projections to calculate the change in population for every year. It also uses this population projection in consonance with the birth rate and death rate given in the CRS to calculate net natural addition. The remaining growth in population is attributed to migration.
These calculations suggest that the sharp decrease in natural growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to a sharp decrease in birth rates from 2020 onwards and perhaps an increase in the death rate in 2021, when the national capital’s health infrastructure was overwhelmed due to the deadly second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Delhi’s birth rate decreased from 18.35 per thousand in 2019 to 14.85 in 2020 and 13.13 in 2021, according to the CRS. The 2020 and 2021 rates are the lowest birth rates since 2003. Delhi’s death rate decreased from 7.29 in 2019 to 7.03 in 2020, but increased to 8.28 in 2021, the highest since 2003.
To be sure, the results on importance of migration and natural growth in Delhi’s population could change if one uses data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) instead of the CRS. The latter can be lower than actual birth and death rates if there is no universal registration.
SRS estimates births and deaths using a sample survey. In Delhi’s case, birth and death rates given by the SRS (available up to 2020) have thrown up numbers lower than those produced by the CRS every year since 2003. If SRS data is used with population projections to estimate natural and migration-related growth in Delhi’s population, the former was still the bigger source of growth in 2020. However, the gap between the two sources was the smallest in 2020. SRS data is not available for 2021.