The biennial Rajya Sabha poll for 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh on October 16 is set to be an engrossing electoral contest amid the prospect of cross-voting by lawmakers from both the ruling BJP-led NDA and the Opposition SP camps. Both sides will look to maximise the “extra votes” factor in an election where each candidate will require 37 first preference votes to win.
If cross-voting does indeed take centre stage, it could be a replay of the February 2024 Rajya Sabha election when the BJP stunned the SP by bagging eight seats instead of the expected seven due to cross-voting by SP MLAs.
BJP’s extra-vote arithmetic under scrutiny
The BJP may adopt the same strategy again to demoralise the SP ranks before the 2027 assembly polls.
This time, with 289 votes at its disposal, the BJP-led NDA is certain to win seven seats and will require seven extra votes for the eighth seat. The NDA’s need for extra votes could drop to two if expected additional support materialises.
The SP-led bloc has 103 votes (101 SP MLAs and two Congress members), which is sufficient for it to win two seats, leaving it with 29 extra votes and requiring just eight more to win a third seat, for which it may pin its hopes on cross-voting by some BJP allies.
{{/usCountry}}The SP-led bloc has 103 votes (101 SP MLAs and two Congress members), which is sufficient for it to win two seats, leaving it with 29 extra votes and requiring just eight more to win a third seat, for which it may pin its hopes on cross-voting by some BJP allies.
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BSP faces loss of Rajya Sabha representation
The tenure of eight BJP Rajya Sabha members and one each of the SP and the BSP ends on November 25. The BSP, which has no current member in the UP assembly as its lone sitting MLA Uma Shankar Singh died in August, is not in a position to elect a member to the Upper House of Parliament from Uttar Pradesh.
At present, the effective strength of the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly is 397. Six seats are vacant.
The NDA’s current tally of 289 in the Uttar Pradesh assembly includes 256 BJP MLAs, 13 Apna Dal (S) MLAs, five Nishad Party MLAs, nine RLD MLAs and six Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) MLAs.
As the BJP is also likely to get support from two Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) MLAs and three unattached members, the NDA strength could go up to 294. Based on this tally, the NDA will require just two more votes to ensure the eighth candidate’s victory.
“The SP will definitely field three candidates in the upcoming Rajya Sabha election to check the NDA from poaching its MLAs. The third candidate’s victory will also give the much-needed boost to the INDIA bloc before the 2027 assembly election,” a Samajwadi Party leader said.
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SP seeks support from RLD legislators
The Samajwadi Party will aim to win the support of three RLD MLAs, who were SP members but contested the 2022 assembly election on the RLD ticket as part of the alliance between both parties.
Similarly, Abbas Ansari, who was fielded as an SBSP candidate from Mau in 2022 despite his association with the SP under a seat-sharing agreement, is likely to support the Samajwadi Party candidate in the upcoming Rajya Sabha election.
Jagdish Narayan Rai, the rebel SBSP MLA from Zafarabad, is also said to be on the SP’s radar. The SP is also hoping SBSP MLAs Dudhram (Mahadewa assembly seat) and Hansu Ram (Belthara Road) might shift their allegiance to the INDIA bloc in the Rajya Sabha election in hope of an SP ticket in the 2027 assembly election. Both the MLAs won as SBSP candidates in the 2022 assembly election in alliance with the SP.
The SP is likely to work on the unease among some BJP and Nishad Party MLAs who fear they might be denied a ticket in the assembly polls. If the SP is able to make inroads into the NDA ranks, the move may pave the way for its third candidate’s victory.
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Pallavi Patel meeting signals possible rapprochement
Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) leader Pallavi Patel, who won the Sirathu assembly on the SP ticket in 2022, recently met Samajwadi Party national president Akhilesh Yadav, indicating that ties between the two leaders were on the mend.
The October 16 Rajya Sabha election will also mark the end of representation for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the Upper House of Parliament. The tenure of BSP’s lone member Ramji Gautam ends on November 25. Owing to the BJP’s support, Ramji Gautam was elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha in November 2020.
The eight BJP Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh whose term ends in November include Brij Lal, Geeta Shakya, Hardeep Singh Puri, Seema Dwivedi, Neeraj Shekhar, Arun Singh, BL Verma and Dinesh Sharma, who has already resigned after being appointed lieutenant governor of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The lone outgoing SP member is the party’s general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav.
On Tuesday, the Election Commission announced the schedule for the biennial elections for Rajya Sabha members from UP. Voting will take place on October 16, from 9am to 4pm. Counting of votes will begin at 5pm the same day.