Maharashtra polls: How the BJP hit an 89% strike rate to reverse Lok Sabha losses

The BJP's Mahayuti alliance achieved a stunning 89% success in assembly polls, reversing Lok Sabha losses through targeted strategies and welfare schemes

Mumbai: The Mahayuti alliance’s spectacular victory in the assembly election caught the opposition Maha Vikas Agahdi (MVA) completely off guard and has left many pondering the secret behind the coalition’s success. With the heat and dust all settled, insiders in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are now revelaing just how the alliance, led by the BJP, pulled it off.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister and BJP candidate Devendra Fadnavis waves the party's flag as he arrives to collect his winning certificate from the Nagpur South West Constituency, in Nagpur on Saturday. (ANI)

Stung by its equally spectacular defeat during the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the BJP was galvanised into action – it swiftly and systematically implemented a micro-level action plan to reverse the factors that had led to its LS loss.

The success of this pan is evident in the astonishing 89% strike the BJP achieved, winning 132 seats in the assembly polls. From setting a counter-narrative to the MVA, to attempting social engineering, keeping the opposition in defensive mode and not letting up, and, of course, ensuring direct benefits to voters through welfare schemes, the BJP went flat out to keep India’s richest state in its grasp.

The BJP won 132 of the 149 seats it contested in the assembly elections, taking its strike up to an incredible 89%, after the embarrassing 32% it managed in the Lok Sabha polls. Its performance is startling not only to the opposition but even to its allies, whose strike rate hovered around 70%.

The Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP, together polled 49.02% of the 64.08 million votes, including five members from smaller parties and Independents. The highest percentage was bagged by the BJP (26.77%), followed by the Shiv Sena (12.38%) and the NCP (9.01%).

For the Mahayuti alliance, this was a significant increase of over 5%, from 43.52% in the Lok Sabha elections held six months ago. In contrast, the opposition MVA was reduced to a 34.4% vote share in the assembly polls, from a whopping 43.71 % in the Lok Sabha election – plummeting by almost 10%.

Party insiders say the BJP wasted no time identifying the factors that had worked against it in the Lok Sabha elections, and immediately set about reversing them. It was clear that the narrative set by Congress, about the ‘scrapping the Constitution’ had steered the scheduled caste and tribal votes towards to the opposition MVA. “First, party leaders negated the narrative and then reached out to these communities by flooding them with welfare schemes and funding,” said a party insider.

Manoj Jarange-Patil’s quota agitation had swung the Maratha vote away from the BJP in the Lok Sabha election, hurting it in Marathwada. The party set about consolidating the OBCs, while simultaneously winning back the Maratha community through its Hindutva agenda it. “It was a winning move, one that resulted in the Mahayuti alliance winning 41 of the 46 seats in Marathwada,” said a senior BJP leader.

The leader said that apart from slogans that raised the party’s emotional pitch, such as ‘Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai’ and ‘Batenge Toh Katenge’, the Hindutva sentiment was aroused by deploying a huge team of gurus and preachers. These religious leaders performed kirtans and pravachans across the state, cleverly drawing attention away from caste and other such narratives towards Hindutva. “Besides this, the party held at least 250 meetings with various communities. The government also took decisions to address their demands,” said the leader.

As part of its multi-pronged strategy, the party also identified over 20% “swing booths” and focused on winning them over with the help of booth-level committees. Voters here were convinced of the opposition’s “false narrative”. A party leader privy to these developments said, “Massive use of social media to negate the narrative and set the Hindutva agenda helped in this endeavour. ‘Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai’ was technically against the Congress’s demand for a caste-based census, but it was perceived by voters as a fight between two religions. Then, Fadnavis played Maulana Sajjad Nomani’s video on ‘Vote Jihad’ at all his rallies during the last leg of campaigning. This helped consolidate Hindus against the ‘vote jihad’s consolidation that had taken place in the Lok Sabha election.”

Rounding off the Mahayuti’s master plan was its flagship Ladki Bahin scheme for its “sisters”. By transferring cash into the accounts of women under the scheme, every month, the alliance ensured a significant number of votes in the assembly polls. The BJP leader said that the party held 1,700-odd programmes to promote the Ladki Bahin scheme. Its “Deva Bhau” projected it as a game-changer by its Devendra Fadnavis.

A senior BJP leader from Mumbai said the micro-level planning and multi-level strategy kept the opposition in defensive mode throughout. “We kept them busy fighting narratives set by us and did not giving them any time to set fresh narratives. The Haryana assembly results three months ago also helped us boost the morale of own party workers, who had virtually given up the battle after the LS results,” he confessed.

Subodh More, convenor of the Jatiant Sangharsh Samiti, said the BJP had benefited from the sub-classification announcement. “The Matang community consolidated behind the BJP and other Mahayuti allies, unlike during the Lok Sabha polls. There were concentrated efforts by the BJP and Shinde-led Sena to polarise Dalit voters by spending huge funds in Dalit-dominated constituencies. They had a tacit understanding with Dalit leaders like Prakash Ambedkar, which helped consolidate OBC votebanks as well,” he said.

Sachin Rajurkar, general secretary, Rashtriya OBC Mahasagh, said that 36 of the 62 MLAs elected from Vidarbha are OBCs and most of them are from the Mahayuti. “Of the 52 government resolutions issued in the last five years for OBCs, 51 were during the Shinde government. Major decisions such as the constitution of Mahajyoti, the corporation for the welfare of OBCs, construction of hostels in all districts, and foreign scholarships were taken in the last two and half years. The OBC comnunity voted for the ruling alliance,” he said. He added that the MVA constituents did not even take a firm stand against inclusion of Marathas in OBC quota.