In Paris, Left & Right force a political crisis

Formation of a new government is going to be a difficult task considering the fractured character of the National Assembly and the looming economic challenges

The roots of the current political crisis in Paris can be dated back to July when elections to the National Assembly failed to throw up a decisive verdict. With President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, Ensemble, the far-Left New Popular Front (NPF) bloc, and Marine Le Pen’s far-Right National Rally mostly dividing up the 577-member assembly, a minority government supported by ideological extremes had become inevitable. Macron’s choice for the prime minister’s (PM) office, Michel Barnier, has now become the first French PM to be voted out in a no-confidence motion in six decades; his three-month-long government has had one of the shortest stints in office.

TOPSHOT - French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves after delivering a speech during the debate prior to the no-confidence votes on his administration at the National Assembly in Paris on December 4, 2024. The French National Assembly debates two motions brought by the French left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front) NFP coalition and the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) RN party in a standoff over 2025's austerity budget, which saw French Prime Minister force through a social security financing bill without a vote (article 49.3) on December 2, 2024. (Photo by Alain JOCARD / AFP) (AFP)

Formation of a new government is going to be a difficult task considering the fractured character of the National Assembly and the looming economic challenges. Barnier fell when his budget sought to cut back State expenses and reduce the deficit, angering the far-Left NPF, which withdrew support. But why did Le Pen back the no-confidence motion? It is argued that Le Pen, who thrice failed to win the presidential polls, stands to gain if Macron fails to stem the current slide. The truth is France’s profligate welfarism has reached a tipping point, and a sharply polarised polity is making it hard to reach a consensus on how best to set the country’s public finances in order.

The instability in Paris comes at a time of great churn, especially in light of the Russian advances in Ukraine and the incoming Trump presidency. France, along with Germany, provides both ideological and economic ballast to Europe’s stance on Ukraine — instability in Paris is most likely to impact the war efforts, especially if Washington tweaks its approach to Kyiv after January.