Moscow to Kyiv via Washington
The onus is now on the US to hold Russia accountable and deliver a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine
The US-brokered agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt military strikes on commercial shipping in the Black Sea and to pause attacks on energy infrastructure represents a glimmer of hope after more than three years of war triggered by Moscow’s military aggression in February 2022. The path to this limited understanding between the bitter rivals has been complicated and even now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of lying about the terms of the agreement. Still, the latest developments are seen as a step towards a broader ceasefire, although it isn’t clear when the agreement will take effect. Zelensky has said the understanding is effective immediately, but Moscow has indicated the Black Sea part of the deal will be effective only after certain sanctions against it are lifted.
The economic fallout of the war, especially on the Global South, has been immense. The war continues to have a far-reaching impact on the supply and prices of food, fuel and fertilisers. The presence of nuclear facilities such as the Zaporizhzhia atomic power plant in the warzone poses a grave threat to the overall security situation.
For several weeks, the US has held separate talks with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators to hammer out an agreement in keeping with President Donald Trump’s pledge to speedily end the war. These negotiations have been unlike any talks that preceded them and Trump has been more focused on a deal, rather than fundamental issues such as international law and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. Such an approach has already left the US vulnerable to efforts by Russian President Vladimir Putin to maximise his gains. Russia was at a disadvantage in the Black Sea because of Ukraine’s tactical attacks with drones, and analysts have questioned whether the understanding on this region provides concessions to Moscow without getting anything significant in return.
Already, the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has suffered a massive setback because of Washington’s inability to hold Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his promises, and this will undoubtedly lead to concerns on whether Trump will be able to get Putin to deliver on the terms of a ceasefire agreement. With Russia already setting terms for the limited deal on the Black Sea, the onus is on the Trump administration.
