BJP cements its Maharashtra dominance | Number Theory

The BJP is the clear political leader in the state and this holds even if it decides to sometimes be a little tough with its alliance partner

The results of municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra have underlined the message which emerged from the 2024 assembly elections in the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the clear political leader in the state and this holds even if it decides to sometimes be a little tough with its alliance partners. The Congress, on the other hand, appears to be headed on a path of implosion and political irrelevance in the state’s politics. Here are three charts which explain this argument in detail.

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  The BJP and the Congress are the biggest gainers and losers in these elections

  Elections were held for 2,869 seats across 29 municipal corporations in the state. If one were to compare these numbers with the 2014-18 round of elections in Maharashtra’s corporations (there were 27 corporations then), the last time local body polls were held in the state, the BJP’s seat share has increased. The Congress seat share has shown a decline from the 2014-18 round, when it won 16% seat share. The Congress seat share in the 2014-18 round was already substantially lower than the 22%-25% seat share it held in the previous four rounds of elections in municipal corporations. This is also the trajectory of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) factions, which taken together have lost seat share compared to the united NCP in the 2014-18 round, when its seat share was already almost half of what it held earlier. The Sena factions and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena combined have, however, held on to their seat share. Elections were held for 2,869 seats across 29 municipal corporations in the state. While the State Election Commission (SEC) has not published official results on either seats won or vote shares, various media reports show that the BJP has won a 49.5% seat share. If one were to compare these numbers with the 2014-18 round of elections in Maharashtra’s corporations (there were 27 corporations then), the last time local body polls were held in the state, the BJP’s seat share has increased by 9.3 percentage points. The Congress, on the other hand, has a 11.3% seat share, a decline from the 2014-18 round, when it won 16% seat share. The Congress seat share in the 2014-18 round was already substantially lower than the 22%-25% seat share it held in the previous four rounds of elections in municipal corporations. This is also the trajectory of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) factions, which taken together have lost seat share compared to the united NCP in the 2014-18 round, when its seat share was already almost half of what it held earlier. The Sena factions and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena combined have, however, held on to their seat share (more on this later).
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  What makes the latest elections even better for the BJP is its ability to win despite not accommodating all its allies

  That the BJP has been growing in Maharashtra and had become the single largest party in the state is something which has been known for a long time now. However, its challenge has been to stitch together and maintain a coalition to capture power and retain it. The BJP and the Shiv Sena contested separately in the 2014 assembly elections and then formed a post-poll alliance. They had a pre-poll alliance in 2019 assembly elections but parted ways despite winning a majority. The BJP finished as the larger party both times. The churn took another turn when the Shiv Sena and the NCP both suffered splits and the BJP formed an alliance with the official factions in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and subsequently the assembly election. While this Mahayuti alliance did very badly in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it swept the assembly elections held later that year. The landslide victory in the 2024 assembly elections was rightly seen as a joint effort for the Mahayuti. However, the BJP did not really accommodate everyone in the Mahayuti in the corporation elections and the full alliance – BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP – only contested together in three of the 29 corporations. Yet, the BJP has increased its seat share. The latest results will add heft to the BJP’s status within the Mahayuti in the state; the alliance has seen its share of turbulence over the past year. That the BJP has been growing in Maharashtra and had become the single largest party in the state is something which has been known for a long time now. However, its challenge has been to stitch together and maintain a coalition to capture power and retain it. The BJP and the Shiv Sena contested separately in the 2014 assembly elections and then formed a post-poll alliance. They had a pre-poll alliance in 2019 assembly elections but parted ways despite winning a majority. The BJP finished as the larger party both times. The churn took another turn when the Shiv Sena and the NCP both suffered splits and the BJP formed an alliance with the official factions in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and subsequently the assembly election. While this Mahayuti alliance did very badly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it swept the assembly elections held later that year. The landslide victory in the 2024 assembly elections was rightly seen as a joint effort for the Mahayuti. However, the BJP did not really accommodate everyone in the Mahayuti in the corporation elections and the full alliance – BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP – only contested together in three of the 29 corporations. Yet, the BJP has increased its seat share. The latest results will add heft to the BJP’s status within the Mahayuti in the state; the alliance has seen its share of turbulence over the past year.
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  An even bigger success for the BJP is the complete disarray within the opposition

  Unfortunately, the Maharashtra state election commission has not released vote share data on the elections. This makes it difficult to say whether the BJP has gained significantly from the lack of opposition unity in the state. However, the opposition alliance had imploded much before campaigning began for the corporation elections. Even traditional allies, namely, the NCP(SP) and the Congress did not contest together in many places. With the Congress now left with just 315 corporators in the state, it is going to find it difficult to build a larger opposition alliance unless it accepts the position of a junior partner. Then there is the question of whether the NCP(SP) and NCP merge , and if so, which alliance they will choose to be part of. Similarly, the Shiv Sena (UBT) deciding to chart its own course as a largely Mumbai party could make it check out from the larger state level considerations. This confusion and reluctance to build a macro challenge at the state level against the BJP is the best thing the ruling party could have asked for.