John J. Hopfield is a co-recipient of the Nobel Prize for Physics in 2024 for his work on the foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks. Interestingly, his seminal work on the subject was published 42 years ago in 1982. When Esther Duflo was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, along with Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer in 2019, she was only 47-year-old. Economists have had to wait for an average of 32 years after
Researchers have to wait a long time for the call from Sweden
Analysis of data from 1901 to 2024 shows that researchers in the four disciplines mentioned above have to wait an average 20.2 years after the publication of their work to be conferred a Nobel Prize. Nearly 31% of the 724 recipients analysed have received their Nobel between 11 and 20 years after publishing their breakthrough work, while a quarter of them have received it in 21 to 30 years. A smaller 23% have received it within 10 years, whereas around 21% of the awardees have had to wait more than 30 years.
Chart 1: The number of years nobel laureates have to wait for their Prize
Some disciplines have a larger waiting period than the others
Nobel laureates in medicine typically receive recognition for their scientific work sooner than those in other disciplines, with an average waiting period of 17 years. In contrast, economics laureates experience the longest wait, averaging 32 years before their achievements are honoured with the Nobel Prize. Meanwhile, laureates in chemistry and physics on average have to wait around 18 and 20 years respectively. In economics, nearly 45% of Nobel laureates waited 21 to 30 years after the publication of their most significant work to receive the prize. By comparison, the majority of laureates in chemistry, medicine, and physics were honoured within a shorter window of 11 to 20 years.
Chart 2: Discipline-wise time gap in receiving Nobel
The time-gap in receiving the Nobel have gone up over the years
The average time-gap between a prize-winning work and receiving the Nobel was around 19 years between 1931 and 1940. However, by 2011-2020, this went up to reach nearly 30 years. For Nobel laureates in chemistry, physics, and medicine, the average time between their work and receiving the prize has significantly increased from around 12–16 years in the 1950s to around 30 years by 2011–2020. In contrast, the time gap for economics laureates has remained steady, averaging 30 to 34 years throughout the years.
Chart 3: Year-wise and discipline wise time gap
And the average age of laureates have increased
With a widening time-gap between ground-breaking research and the awarding of the Nobel Prize widens, the average age of laureates has also increased. The average has gone up from 58.5 in 1971-1980 to 68.8 in 2011-2020. Since 2021, it has been 67.7 so far. Except for economics, where the average has more or less remained between 64 and 67, all other disciplines have seen a considerable increase in the same. Physics especially have seen a significant rise in the average age of the laureates, as it has increased from 52.8 in 1971-1980 to 69.8 in 2011-2020, a rise of 32%. In Chemistry and Medicine, the average has gone up from 60.5 and 57.5 to 69 and 68.4 during this period respectively. Since the prize cannot be awarded posthumously, this growing time-gap and average age of laureates risks eroding the prestige of the Nobel by leaving major contributions unrecognized if their creators pass away before being honoured.
Chart 4: Average age of Nobel laureates over the decades
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