Number Theory: Is Congress really parasitic? Here’s what numbers show

In head-to-head comparison, the BJP has had a lead over the Congress in every Lok Sabha election since 1989, except 1991 and 2009.

The Congress has become “parasitic” in nature, and is only winning seats by riding piggyback on its allies, . This marks a big change in the BJP’s political attack on the Congress — from the clarion call of “Congress Mukt (free) Bharat” in 2014 and 2019, which was rewarded with the BJP winning back-to-back parliamentary majorities and the Congress sinking to alarming tallies of 44 and 52 in the Lok Sabha.

UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi (left) and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. (HT Photo)

The 2024 results, at least for now, have put a pause on this narrative. Not only did the BJP fail to retain its parliamentary majority of 2014 and 2019, the Congress has added 47 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) to its 2019 tally. The gap between the BJP and Congress led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is also much smaller with the former being at 293 and the latter at 234.

Is the increase in Congress’s 2024 tally driven by the so-called parasitic behaviour? Here is what data shows.

Is Congress really parasitic? Here’s what numbers show

• 
  A large part of Congress’s gains came from states where it contested alone or as the senior partner

  Out of 36 states and Union territories (UTs) in the country, the Congress saw an increase in its seat tally between 2024 and 2019 in 14, no change in 16, and a fall in the remaining six. If one compares 2024 to 2014, these numbers are 17, 15 and four. In both these comparisons, Maharashtra led to the biggest increase in the Congress’s tally with the gains being 11 and 12 PCs depending on whether one compares 2024 to 2014 or 2019. There are six states where the Congress has gained at least five PCs or more between the 2019 and 2024 elections, namely, Maharashtra (12), Rajasthan (8), Karnataka (8), Telangana (5), Haryana (5) and Uttar Pradesh (5). Put together, these six states have contributed 43 out of 47 seats the Congress has added to its 2024 tally compared to 2019. In all of these states except Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, the Congress was the dominant or only party in the alliance. In Maharashtra, the Congress contested in alliance with the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Nationalist Congress Party (SP). While the NCP is an old partner of the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is a more recent partner . The Congress has gained another six seats in states where it contested alone or as the dominant alliance partner. This means that 60% of the Congress’s improved seat tally between 2019 and 2024 has come from states where it contested alone or as the senior partner.
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  A big reason for the drop in the BJP’s seat tally is its loss to non-Congress parties

  Once again, the numbers show this clearly. Of the 201 PCs lost by the BJP (it won Surat without a contest), it lost 84 to the Congress, 104 to other members of the INDIA bloc, and 13 to others. These numbers were 31,10, and 92 in 2019 and 37,11,98 in 2014 for Congress, Congress allies , and others. This shows that a bigger reason for the loss in BJP’s seat tally in 2024 is its failure to defeat non-Congress parties rather than the Congress. If one were to break-up the non-Congress parties as alliance partners of the Congress and others, the BJP’s biggest losses have come against Congress’s alliance partners. This shows that the gains between the Congress and its alliance partners were mutual if not tilted in favour of the latter rather than the former.
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  To be sure, the BJP has continued to retain its historical dominance vis-à-vis the Congress

  This is an important political fact to keep in mind. Not only is Congress’s 2024 tally of 99, the third lowest in its history, it has lagged behind the BJP in head-to-head contests even in elections it has done much better in the past. An HT analysis of Congress and BJP tallies in head-to-head contests – PCs where these two parties finished either first or second against each other – shows that the BJP has had a lead over the Congress in every Lok Sabha elections since 1989 except 1991 and 2009. Clearly, the Congress needs to do a lot better than its 2024 performance to bridge this historic disadvantage vis-à-vis the BJP. Having said this, there is good reason to argue that the 2024 results may be the beginning of a worrying trend for the BJP, which if it were to gain momentum, could further erode the political capital of a party that has been the national political hegemon since 2014.