Number Theory: What's at stake in the third phase of voting

The BJP and its allies have won a majority of parliamentary constituencies voting in this phase in every Lok Sabha election starting 2009.

A total of 93 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) across 10 states and the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu are voting today (Tuesday, May 7) in the third of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections. The Surat PC of Gujarat was also scheduled to vote, but will not be voting in any phase because the winner there has already been declared (more on this later). After this phase – it is also the third largest phase by number of PCs voting – voting would have concluded in 283 of India’s 543 PCs. At the state level, voting would have concluded in 16 states and four UTs. Here are some key facts about the PCs voting in today’s phase.

An election official puts indelible ink on the finger of a voter after she cast her vote. (PTI Photo)

What's at stake in the third phase of voting

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  NDA had a seat share of 88% in these PCs in 2019

  The BJP and its allies won 79 out of 90 PCs (including Surat) for which results can be compared with 2019 elections. Because of delimitation in Assam, the four PCs polling there do not have a comparable constituency in 2019 or previous elections. This data nugget gives an idea of the importance of this phase of elections for the BJP. What makes this phase easy for the BJP is that all of Gujarat is voting in this phase. In fact, the BJP has already won the Surat PC in Gujarat after the nomination of Congress candidate was cancelled and everybody else withdrew from the contest. Even in Karnataka, where polling will get over after this phase, the BJP has always won a majority of PCs in every election since 2004. The Congress and its allies, won just six out the 90 PCs in 2019. The BJP and its allies have won a majority of PCs voting in this phase in every Lok Sabha election starting 2009. The 2009 Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP’s seat share fall to the lowest level since the 1991 elections at the all-India level. Because of change in constituency boundaries in the 2008 delimitation, it is not possible to compare PC-wise results for elections before 2009.
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  Almost half the PCs voting today have elected the same party/alliance since 2009

  A comparison of the winners of the 90 PCs voting May 7, for which past trends are known by classifying them as part of a BJP-led alliance, a Congress-led alliance, or others shows that the winning group in 48 of them was the same in the past three Lok Sabha elections. The BJP-led alliance won 44 of these 48 PCs in 2019, the Congress-led alliance three, and others one. In another 23 PCs, the winner was the same in 2014 and 2019, but different from the one in 2009. A BJP-led alliance won 22 of these 23 PCs and others one. In nine PCs, the winner was the same group in 2009 and 2014, but changed in 2019. The BJP-led alliance won six of them in 2019, the Congress-led group one, and others two. The winning group has changed in every successive election in only 10 PCs, seven of which were won by a BJP-led alliance in 2019. Of the remaining three of these 10 PCs, a Congress-led alliance won two in 2019 and others, one.
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  The average PC in this phase tends urban although some PCs are very rural

  According to 2011 census data aggregated to PC-level by How India Lives, the median value of rural population in the PCs voting today is 73.6%, less than the all-India median of 76.9%. This means that the average PC in this phase tends to be relatively more urban than the average Indian PC overall. However, the phase has some very rural PCs at the extreme end. For example, over 90% of the population in the five Bihar PCs voting today were rural according to the 2011 census.
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  This phase has not seen high turnout historically

  In each of the past three Lok Sabha elections, the PCs voting May 7 have had a lower turnout than the all-India average, a number that takes on special significance given that turnout in the first two phases was lower than in 2019. However, the gap of the average turnout in these PCs with the all-India turnout decreased in each of the past three elections, although, individually, 55 PCs still showed lower turnout than the India average even in 2019.