E-Paper
Amid sanctions, Moscow signals continued belligerence
This article is authored by Prabhu Dayal, former ambassador, New Delhi.
The Russia-Ukraine war is not slowing down overall, but rather is becoming a long, attritional conflict with a shift in tactics. Some battlefield gains by Russia have slowed, and its economy shows signs of strain. However, Russia continues offensive operations, and the conflict could last for months or even years.
In a large-scale aerial attack on Ukraine during the night on Saturday, October 25, 2025, Russian forces killed at least four people and injured dozens more in strikes on Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region. The assault, involving both ballistic missiles and drones, targeted infrastructure in addition to residential buildings. Ukraine's air force reported that its air defences shot down four of nine Russian ballistic missiles and 50 of 62 drones. However, direct hits were confirmed at 11 sites across the country. According to reports, Russian aerial assault on Ukraine involved a combination of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and multiple types of Iranian-designed attack drones.
The use of multiple drone types in large swarms is a tactic intended to saturate and overwhelm Ukrainian air defence systems. The October 25 attack continued a pattern of Russian strikes targeting civilian and energy infrastructure, a tactic frequently observed throughout 2025. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a rescuer was killed during a repeat missile strike on the same location, a tactic often used to target emergency services personnel. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Russia has launched approximately 770 ballistic and more than 50 Kinzhal missiles in 2025 alone, underscoring the intensity of Moscow's aerial campaign.
Russia's rate of territorial gain has slowed significantly since the initial invasion, with a very slow average advance.
Recent data indicates the Russian economy is showing signs of strain and the pace of its recovery is slowing. There are also reports that the defence sector is showing signs of slowing.
The conflict is increasingly characterised by Ukraine's long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure, which is causing fuel shortages and shifting the nature of the war. Ukraine's ability to continue its defence relies on consistent aid from the US and other western allies.
Diplomatic efforts have failed to yield results, indicating that a negotiated end to the war is not easy. Peace talks mediated by the US, notably in August 2025, ended without an agreement, as Russia and Ukraine continued to disagree on key conditions. The Kremlin has not altered its core objective of subjugating Ukraine, making diplomatic breakthroughs highly unlikely in the near future.
On October 22, 2025, the US imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries, following similar moves by the UK and EU earlier in October. The sanctions announcement was preceded by Trump cancelling an anticipated meeting with Putin in Budapest. Trump said the meeting was called off because he did not feel it would produce a tangible result and did not want a waste of time. Trump expressed frustration that his diplomatic efforts to end the war had repeatedly stalled. He told reporters that his phone calls with Putin don't go anywhere, leading to his decision to intensify the pressure.
It is too early to determine if the recent US sanctions on Russia's oil companies will have their desired effect, as their full impact will depend heavily on enforcement and Russian countermeasures. Despite the tough measures, several factors could limit the full impact of the sanctions. Russia has become adept at sanctions evasion, particularly through the use of a "shadow fleet" of tankers and networks of intermediaries. Analysts expect Russia will continue to find new ways to route oil to buyers. President Vladimir Putin has stated the sanctions will not significantly affect the Russian economy or alter his war aims.
Regardless of the immediate financial impact, the sanctions are a strong signal that the US is escalating economic pressure on Russia's energy sector. How strictly Washington enforces the threat of secondary sanctions will be the critical factor determining their ultimate success.
Summing up, despite international efforts and discussions, there is no end to the conflict in sight, and it is expected to continue for years.
Russia's actions show no signs of de-escalation, and the Kremlin has not provided assurances that it will refrain from escalating the conflict further.
The war is strategically a grinding, attritional conflict, with Russia potentially relying on a strategy of attrition to wear down Ukraine. Russia may still have advantages in personnel and equipment, and its tactics can overwhelm Ukrainian defences.
This article is authored by Prabhu Dayal, former ambassador, New Delhi.
