G20 Summit 2026: Between headwinds and tailwinds

As leaders prepare for the G20 summit in Florida, conflicts, energy disruptions and trade disputes dominate the agenda.

With President Donald Trump’s reverses in the US mid-term elections, the prime question of the day is whether the takeaway lessons can moderate US ambitions vis-à-vis Canada or lead to a compromise with Tehran. While we keep on guessing, further worries accumulate with China’s emergence as a new giant in AI and Russia’s persistent intimidation and aggressive posturing vis-à-vis Ukraine. Of course, there are many other friction points that challenge the efficacy of global governance. Hence, the coming days are expected to be extremely busy around NW 87 Avenue and NW 36 Street, as the 21st G20 Summit is scheduled to take place in Doral, South Florida, on December 14-15. Against the backdrop of a war-torn world, the looming spectre of an ongoing energy crisis and escalating trade conflicts, almost all the world’s major leaders are looking forward to the first meeting since 2008 to discuss the key issues relating to trade, development, debt and energy. However, this group, established in 1999, now comprises 21 members, including 19 countries and two regional organisations--the European Union and the African Union. Many of the world’s most populous countries are members of this group, and its members account for nearly 80% of global GDP. Consequently, the influence of the G20 is almost ubiquitous.

Donald Trump (Bloomberg)

Although the member States are scheduled to meet in mid-December under America’s presidency, it is noteworthy that an important member, South Africa, has not been invited to this year’s summit. Moreover, despite the controversy surrounding Russia in the context of the ongoing Ukraine war, the US has extended a gestural invitation to Russia. Another significant aspect is that although Trump has invited all the members, his erratic demeanour has raised questions about American authority and its credibility.

The Ukraine war, which continues since 2022, particularly the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, along with the Houthi rebels’ aggression in the Red Sea, have had a significant impact on the global energy sector. Disruptions to the movement of cargo ships have led to rising prices of essential commodities of various kinds, affecting the populations of both developed and developing countries. Against this backdrop, it is quite inevitable that discussions among representatives of the grouping will focus on maintaining global peace, ensuring maritime security and strengthening a rule-based international trading system, particularly in response to Trump’s tariff policies.

Keeping the above context in mind, the following issues are likely to feature prominently in the upcoming discussions:

• Reducing superfluous regulatory burdens to promote economic growth
• Ensuring affordable and secure energy supply
• Fostering AI-optimised integration in manufacturing and global trade without causing disruption. Such discussions and decisions taken therein can undoubtedly create an atmosphere conducive to international cooperation.

However, certain issues or controversies raised during pre-leaders’ summit meetings of G20 Finance Ministers and Foreign Ministers have highlighted significant challenges to the proposed roadmap.

During Donald Trump’s second term, his Make America Great Again (MAGA) policy and its subsequent consequences, including the imposition of unilateral tariffs, the forcible detention of the Venezuelan president, and the attack on Iran, resulting in disruptions to global supply chains, have undermined the atmosphere of international cooperation. Besides, several of his controversial policy decisions have created new challenges for G20 cooperation. First, Trump remained absent from the 2025 G20 Summit, citing allegations against South African president Cyril Ramaphosa over the alleged seizure of land from the white minority and their persecution. The differences widened further when South Africa criticised Israel’s military offensive in Gaza and the US offensive in Iran. Consequently, Trump did not invite South Africa to the summit, generating mixed reactions among member States. Second, Trump’s decisions to invite Russia evoked sharp opposition from several European countries, particularly Germany and Poland. These countries favoured using frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, making Russia’s war engagement a thorny issue. Third, the trade conflict between US and Canada reached such an acrimonious state that Trump repeatedly referred to Canada as the potential 51st state of the US and expressed his desire to bring it under American control, triggering another diplomatic spat. These growing differences were reflected in Canada’s walkout and the withdrawal of several European leaders from the family photographs, highlighting the deep divisions within G20 framework.

In this situation, member States like India’s position are increasingly characterised by its tilt to attach importance to side-line discussions and alternative diplomatic rapprochement. For instance, while discussions among Quad leaders have focused on regional security concerns, India, in collaboration with Liberia, established the Group of Friends on Safety and Security of Shipping and Seafarers (GoF on S4) in September 2025 to promote maritime safety and security.

On the flip side, another notable electoral setback was Benjamin Netanyahu’s inability to form a government independently with a clear majority. At the domestic level, criticism of Trump’s decision to participate in the war against Iran, coupled with rising gasoline prices, has generated considerable public dissatisfaction. This may compel him to move away, to some extent, from unilateral decision-making and adopt a cooperative approach under duress, thereby potentially creating greater opportunities for international cooperation.

(The views expressed are personal)

This article is authored by Gouri Sankar Nag, professor & head, department of political science, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, West Bengal and Mihir Dey, assistant professor, department of political science, Sushil Kar College, West Bengal.