Determining the future of Gaza and the potential Palestinian State appears challenging amidst the ongoing conflict. A permanent ceasefire date remains unpredictable. The focus has been on the exchange of civilian hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but the military confrontation persists. Despite being bitter enemies, the Israeli government and Hamas share the reluctance to cease fighting in Gaza. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned about his political future, while Hamas fears its role in a future independent Palestine. The extent of destruction hampers concrete reconstruction planning, but it is essential to initiate discussions on Gaza's governance post-war to avoid a power vacuum. //The Israeli war machine suggests a possible intention to replace Gaza and the West Bank with a single democratic country they want as a "one-State solution."
Supporters of Palestine gather at Harvard University to show their support for Palestinians in Gaza at a rally in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on October 14, 2023 (Photo by Joseph Prezioso / AFP) (AFP)
However, implementing this solution could lead to Jews being outnumbered by Muslim Palestinians within a short span of time, jeopardising Israel's existence as a Jewish State. It may be wiser for Israel to consider abandoning the West Bank settlements rather than forsaking Zionism entirely. An alternative solution, establishing a State next to its border, could prevent the proliferation of terrorist organisations, regular wars, and international condemnation.
Addressing the broader Palestinian issue requires integrating Gaza and the West Bank into any lasting resolution. A viable plan must uphold a "never again" principle, preventing perpetual militant attacks, atrocities, and blockades in both Israeli and Palestinian territories. The current humanitarian crisis in Gaza results from limited Arab State involvement, The Palestinian leaders' rejection of peace plans, and insufficient commitment from involved parties. The international community's ability to handle the potential cataclysm is a growing concern.
So, debates on permanently resolving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute are underway, with various proposals doing the rounds. However, these lack guarantees of a secure Palestinian homeland and fool-proof security for Israelis. Disagreements centre on governing Gaza, providing solace to the bereaved, orchestrating reconstruction, and controlling militant organisations. Acceptability to Palestinians, mainstream Arab countries, and the West is critical.
Some Arab States advocate resuming comprehensive peace talks. But past attempts have made no substantial progress. Alternative ideas, like relocating Gazan Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula, face rejection due to security concerns. The UN mandate, successful in other regions like East Timor and Kosovo, is hindered by divergent views among United Nations Security Council members. The "two-State" solution is gaining renewed attention and is advocated by the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) countries, as well as Jordan's King Abdullah II and Saudi Arabia. However, establishing an independent Palestinian homeland requires political will from the Israeli leadership, political parties, and the Palestinians. Overcoming ideological differences, especially with groups like Hamas, PFLP, and Islamic Jihad, is a significant challenge. Efforts to unite factions like Hamas and Fatah have faced obstacles, particularly from Hamas' military wing, Syria and Iran.
As President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority (PA) ages, efforts are underway to involve young activists in Fatah and delegate responsibilities to them. While some progress has been made, the popularity of Abbas among the Palestinians is at the lowest ebb. But internationally. he and his political wing ‘Fatah’ still command more credibility than other Palestinian groups. Differences in strategy between Hamas's political leadership and its military commanders could offer Abbas an opportunity to gain influence in post-war Gaza, particularly with potential Arab support. He may be the sole figure acceptable to a broad spectrum of regional powers and the West.
Constructive leadership from the PA and other Arab States is crucial for a future Palestinian State. This approach aligns with the interests of mainstream Arab States opposing militant groups in Gaza and seeking working relations with Israel. Beyond political support, substantial economic assistance, with a focus on the medium term, is necessary. With the US Congress burdened by assistance to Ukraine and Israel, and the EU stating that Europe will not fund Gaza's reconstruction, the responsibility may fall on the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs. Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed support for Palestine's independence during an online BRICS summit, positioning China as a potential partner in Gaza's reconstruction. Unlike the US, China does not carry the same baggage in the Arab world.
However, donors may await clear political structures in Gaza before committing funds. Now, will there be political will in Israel for that? Israeli society today is divided, with the majority favouring a democratic and Jewish Israel, while religious fanatics advocate for a Jewish-only State. Extreme Rightist leaders and orthodox religious figures presently in the Israeli government are exerting their influence and promoting policies such as eliminating Hamas sympathisers, considering nuclear options for Gaza, and advocating Palestinian exile. It's essential to note that the ruling coalition in Israel doesn't represent the larger peace-loving population.
Past leaders like Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon engaged in peace talks and recognised the need for a two-State solution. Ehud Olmert, Sharon's successor, had offered a comprehensive peace proposal to the Palestinians and under his leadership, the prospect of an independent Palestinian State was at its peak. His proposal involved a withdrawal from the West Bank, leaving only 6.3% under Israeli control, compensated by giving 5.8% of Israeli land to the Palestinians. He suggested a link road connecting Gaza Strip and the West Bank and proposed dividing Jerusalem into two separate territories under Israeli and Palestinian control. He even offered to place Al Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount including whole of the Old City under Palestinian suzerainty. Despite being a solid two-State proposal, Abbas reportedly rejected it under pressure from Hamas. However, subsequent leaders, including Benjamin Netanyahu, have led to the current state of affairs. Post-war, elections are expected in Israel due to Netanyahu's low popularity and legal issues. A forward-looking government can be formed through international engagement, particularly from the US, the UK, and the EU, with Arab States committing to support the Palestinian cause.
The resolution of the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian issue is crucial for lasting peace in the Levant and preventing further casualties. While a one-State solution is less likely than a two-State solution, precautions must be taken to avoid a power vacuum in Gaza when establishing a new Palestinian government. International pressure must push Israel to promptly move into the process of seamlessly establishing a Palestinian State after the conflict. The current crisis has provided momentum for a two-State solution, seen as the last hope for peace in the region.
This article is authored by Soumen Ray, former Indian ambassador and high commissioner, Gulf, West Asia, and eastern & southern African countries.
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