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As Kerala battles rising Covid cases, opposition says govt’s tall claims exposed
Experts say that due to high density of population, lower prevalence of antibodies, a large number of elderly population and high volume of lifestyle diseases such as diabetes, Kerala will have to go an extra mile to contain the Covid pandemic.
Amidst the threat of a possible third Covid wave, a steady rise in infections in southern Kerala is posing a big challenge to the state’s overstretched health system and exposing the government to opposition attacks.
On Tuesday, the state accounted for 22,129 out of 42,498 cases recorded in the country, nearly 50% of the national figure and its average test positivity rate of 12.35% was almost four times the national average of 3%. Kerala was the first state to report a Covid case in the country in January 2020 and the pandemic has shown no signs of abating here in the last three months, health ministry statistics show.
It is the first state in the country to report over 20,000 Covid-19 cases in the last two months, leading to a worried Union health ministry asking it to ramp up its virus control measures. A team of state Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders met Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Wednesday urging him to ensure that the state takes proactive measures to contain the surge in cases.
The intensity of surge in Kerala can be gauged when compared with the situation in the neighbouring states. Cases in Tamil Nadu have come down from 20,421 on June 6-- the last occasion when any Indian state reported more than 20,000 infections-- to 1,767 cases on Tuesday. Karnataka, which witnessed a high volume of cases in April-May, only reported 1,501 new cases on Tuesday with a TPR of 1.46%. Kerala, on the other hand, continues to report a high number of cases, which have now crossed 3.3 million, second only to Maharashtra which has a caseload of 6.2 million.
Out of 450,000 active cases in the country, Kerala’s share is 145,000.
Most of the vacant Covid beds are getting occupied in the state and demand for ventilators is also on the rise while an estimated 14.8 million residents above 18 years of age are still to be given the first dose of Covid vaccine due to limited supply. Worried experts suggest a steady rise in cases could be the sign of a possible third wave in the state.
The fourth round of the sero survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research showed antibody prevalence was 67. 7% nationally but it was only 42.7 % in Kerala, meaning a huge chunk of its population is still susceptible to the virus.
With high density of population (859 people per sq km) and a large number of elderly population (at least 15% are above 60 years of age) and high volume of lifestyle diseases such as diabetes, the state will have to go an extra mile to contain the contagion. Experts said low testing rate, obsession with rapid antigen tests and over dependence on bureaucracy was among the reasons responsible for slowing down Kerala’s fight against the pandemic.
“The government sniffs politics in every aspect of the pandemic. Experts and medical bodies have been kept away deliberately. Inflated records won’t stand forever and now it stands exposed,” said Dr S S Lal, a public health expert who worked with the World Health Organisation for many years. “Mere lockdown won’t do any good. It is time for the state to redraw its strategies,” said Dr N M Arun, another public health expert.
Though there is no shortage of oxygen or beds, the health system is still overburdened. Compared to last week, there was a 14% hike in demand for beds and 80% of Covid beds were occupied this week, health ministry statistics show. 10 of the 30 worst Covid affected districts in the country are in the state. Malappuram tops the chart with 4,037 active cases.
Despite the grim reality, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has put up a brave face saying the situation is well under control. “Second wave started late in the state and about 50% of the state population are yet to contract the virus. So we expected this increase,” he said. He said there was a shortage of vaccines which was delaying the state’s universal inoculation programme. But the opposition parties, the Congress and the BJP say the government is to be blamed for the sorry state of affairs.
“Its lies are falling flat. The government fudged data to give a rosy picture but now skeletons are tumbling out of its cupboard. The RTI reply we received shows more than 7,316 [Covid] fatalities were not accounted for. And its Covid stimulus package [has] turned out to be a big farce,” said opposition leader V D Satheesan. He said the government relegated virus management to bureaucrats and they framed rules and regulations with no thought for human woes.
“We have appraised the Union government and party central leadership about the ground situation in the state. The state government can’t hide the truth for long,” said BJP state president K Surendran. He said at many places, local CPI(M) leaders were controlling the vaccination process. But the ruling CPI(M) denied these charges and blamed opposition parties “for playing dirty politics” even during the pandemic. “Both the Congress and the BJP are in the same boat and are yet to learn a lesson from their recent assembly poll debacle,” said party acting secretary A Vijayaraghavan.
