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Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta, who got Indian poll results horribly wrong, says he predicted Donald Trump's win

Nov 06, 2024 05:53 PM IST

Axis My India’s predictions recently missed the mark in key Indian elections, including the Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

Psephologist Pradeep Gupta and his team at Axis My America claimed to have accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. As the final vote count approached on Wednesday, Axis My America’s forecast aligned closely with Donald Trump’s results in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Axis My America, a subsidiary of Axis My India, stood out for precisely capturing voter sentiment across key states, said Pradeep Gupta.

Chairman & MD of Axis My India Pradeep Gupta.((PTI Photo) )
Chairman & MD of Axis My India Pradeep Gupta.((PTI Photo) )

“As counting enters the final lap, Axis My America's prediction of Donald Trump getting elected as the next US President is spot on for both popular vote and electoral votes. While many local pollsters missed the mark, Axis My America which is a subsidiary of Axis My India got it Bang on!” Pradeep Gupta posted on X.

Follow live updates on US election results

Interestingly, this successful US prediction comes after a recent misfire by Axis My India in the latest Indian elections, including the Lok Sabha, and Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir polls. Despite this setback, Pradeep Gupta’s work on the US election will likely reinforce his reputation for rigorous analytics.

Also Read | Pradeep Gupta breaking down on live TV: Old video is viral as Haryana exit polls go off-mark

Axis My India had predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) might secure over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, aligning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan “Abki Baar 400 Paar.” The exit poll projected the BJP would capture between 322 and 340 seats, an increase from their 303 seats in 2019.

However, the actual results saw the BJP falling short of a simple majority, with the NDA finishing at 293 seats.

In the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections 2024, Axis My India had predicted a hung assembly with the Congress-National Conference combine could win between 35 and 45 seats, BJP 24-24, the PDP 4-6 and others 8-27 seats.

According to the Axis-My India exit poll, the majority of Muslim votes in the Jammu region could to the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance.

However, in the final results, the J&K National Conference won 42 seats, the BJP won 29, the Indian National Congress won six, the J&K Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP) won three, the J&K People Conference, Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won one seat each, whereas Independent (IND) candidates won seven seats.

About Axis My India

Axis My India is a prominent Indian polling and market research firm known for accurate election forecasts and consumer insights. Led by psephologist Pradeep Gupta, it uses extensive surveys to predict voting trends. While often successful, the firm recently faced challenges with some inaccurate predictions in major Indian elections.

Donald Trump elected US president in stunning comeback

Donald Trump was elected president, capping a remarkable comeback four years after he was voted out of the White House and ushering in a new American leadership likely to test democratic institutions at home and relations abroad.

Trump, 78, recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, The Associated Press reported, following a campaign of dark rhetoric that deepened the polarisation in the country.

"America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," Trump said early on Wednesday to a roaring crowd of supporters at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in Florida.

Trump’s political career had appeared to be over after his false claims of election fraud led a mob of supporters to storm the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in a failed bid to overturn his 2020 defeat.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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