Covid-19 cases likely to peak by October, warns Kerala CM

Many independent experts believe that the state’s moving growth rate (MGR) for Covid-19 positivity is twice than the national average.

Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Thursday said experts have warned that Covid-19 virus cases will go up sharply by next month in the state and asked people not to lower their guard at this critical juncture. He said test positivity rate was quite high in the last couple of days but it will stabilize soon once testing rate goes up again.

File photo: Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan. (PTI)

“Some studies have pointed out that Covid-19 cases will peak by October. We should not let our guard down citing drop in daily cases. Reduced number is due to the lesser number of tests. Onam festivities led to a dip in tests,” he said. The CM said the state’s vigil and surveillance really helped in containing mortality rate to an extent but the threat is far from over.

“Test positivity rate is above 8 now. We have to bring it down to 5. At least 50 percent of the total cases came up in last month. Though we managed to contain a massive spread, the threat remains,” he said, adding that earlier some experts had warned daily cases would go up more than 10,000 in August but the state managed it well.

Many independent experts believe that the state’s moving growth rate (MGR) for positivity is twice than the national average - 30-day MGR is 122 percent but the national average is only 64 percent in August. There are widespread complaints that many deaths failed to find a place in the government list.

While the official Covid-19 deaths in the state are 316, experts said the number may be more than double. Experts attribute the recent spike to increased testing. Till July, daily test rate was between 10,000 and 15,000 but now the state is trying hard to hike it to 50,000.

Meanwhile, the state has reported 1,153 fresh cases taking its Covid-19 tally to 79,568. As many as 57, 732 patients in the state have recovered from the deadly contagion while active cases stand at 21,516. With 10 more casualties, Kerala’s Covid-19 death toll has gone up to 316.