Cyclone Nisarga: How the forecast changed over last three days
Cyclone Nisarga is heading towards the Maharashtra coast and is expected to inundate low-lying areas, especially in cities like Mumbai and cause structural damage from falling trees and power poles.
The landfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is expected between Harihareshwar (in Maharashtra’s Raigad) and Daman during the afternoon of June 3.
The IMD started issuing frequent bulletins about Nisarga in the last three days. Here’s how the weather department accurately tracked the changing position of Nisarga and its direction of movement:
Sunday: The IMD said that a cyclone is forming in the Arabian Sea that might take shape in the next few days and head towards Maharashtra and Gujarat. It issued heavy rain alert for Mumbai coast for June 3-4. Nisarga started as a low-pressure system, said the IMD and predicted that it is likely to turn into a depression by Monday.
Monday: The IMD said that tropical storm Nisarga is likely to turn into a deep depression and make landfall near Palghar district, 100 kilometre north of Mumbai. The impact will be from Daman in south Gujarat to Harihareshwar in Raigad (in Maharashtra) with damages expected across four districts - Mumbai, Thane, Palghar and Raigad. Nisarga is expected to make landfall as a severe cyclonic storm on the evening of June 3. Red alert was issued for all four districts as well as Nashik, Dhule and Nandurbar for June 3.
Tuesday: Developing deep depression Nisarga in the Arabian Sea is expected to make landfall by Wednesday afternoon over Raigad district just brushing past south of Mumbai. Storm surges and damages identified. Nisarga is expected to turn into severe cyclonic storm and will cause extremely heavy rain in Mumbai, Thane, Palghar and Raigad. Expected storm surge (strong wave action) will lead to inundation for low-lying areas in Mumbai, Thane and Raigad.
IMD’s Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said that the severe cyclonic storm will have a wind speed of 90-105 kmph when it crosses the coast on June 3.
The wind speed could also cause damage to trees, telephone, and electric poles, Mohapatra warned.