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Delhi, Goa have most Covid deaths per 100k: Govt data
“One thing clear from the data analysis is that some states such as Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh are hiding death numbers in a big way,” said James Wilson, a data analyst and member of the advisory committee of the Kerala Electricity Board
Delhi and Goa have the highest Covid deaths per one lakh population (DPL) in the country whereas Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha have lower rates, government data shows.
These inferences are based on the health ministry’s Covid and vaccination data for May 15 and population projections for 2021 by the Census Commissioner of India and come at the time when some state governments are being accused of hiding actual death figures.
“One thing clear from the data analysis is that some states such as Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh are hiding death numbers in a big way,” said James Wilson, a data analyst and member of the advisory committee of the Kerala Electricity Board, who has been analysing the health ministry’s Covid data for the past year.
“There cannot be such a huge variation in death numbers unless some states are not transparent about reporting Covid deaths.”
According to health ministry data, Goa has the highest death rate per one lakh population of 131.88 with 2,056 deaths reported. About one-fourth of these deaths took place during the second Covid wave that started in March 2020. On Goa’s high death per population rate, chief minister Pramod Sawant said it was on account of the state’s “complete transparency” in testing and death records.”In Goa we make sure that every Covid death is counted. Even if a person dies without being tested we conduct his test post-mortem and if he is Covid positive we include that in the figures,” he said.
After Goa, Delhi has second highest DPL of 101 followed by Uttarakhand’s 40.57. Delhi government officials did not comment on the findings despite repeated requests for a response. Uttarakhand chief secretary Om Prakash said the state was transparent in reporting Covid cases and deaths even though several deaths of outsiders during the Mahakumbh were recorded in the state figures.
Gujarat, which has been repeatedly accused of hiding Covid deaths, has a much lower DPL of 12.95. Divya Bhaskar, a Gujarati daily newspaper, had on Friday reported that the state government issued 1.21 lakh death certificates between March 1 and May 10 this year, 61,000 more than in the same period last year. Although the Gujarat government did not deny the figures, junior home minister Pratapsinh Jadeja said it was “mischievous” to corelate death certificates with Covid and accused the newspaper of trying to create a sensation.
Gujarat’s neighbouring state of Maharashtra, which reported high Covid cases since March, had a DPL of almost 70, the highest among large population states. Karnataka has a DPL of 32, Chhattisgarh 39.30, Punjab 38.54, Andhra Pradesh 17.56 and Tamil Nadu 22.72. On the lower side are Bihar with 3.04, Telangana with 7.46 and Odisha with 5.21. However, Bihar’s neighbouring state Jharkhand’s figure is 11.52 and West Bengal’s 13.39.
Uttar Pradesh has a DPL of 7.47, with 4,623 total Covid deaths reported so far, even as there have been reports of over 800 dead bodies found buried on the banks of the Ganga river in Kanpur, Gazipur and Unnao districts. The UP government has refuted the charge of hiding data, saying Covid deaths were being reported as per the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) guidelines that prohibit recording of Covid deaths of people with co-morbidities. “We are strictly following ICMR guidelines and the data shows how effective our Covid management was,” said a UP government official.
Madhya Pradesh, where burials and cremations as per Covid protocols in major cities such as Indore, Bhopal and Jabalpur were almost double of the Covid deaths reported, had a DPL of 8.18 with 6,913 total deaths reported. In Bhopal, close to 1,400 people were cremated with Covid protocols since April 1 even as official Covid deaths were only 425, said Bhopal-based social activist Seema Kurup, claiming the situation was similar in Indore and Jabalpur. State health minister Prabhuram Chaudhary said, “We did a door-to-door survey to identify Covid positive cases and our timely action is the main reason behind low death rate.”
However, a recent report by the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle estimated that actual Covid deaths in India as of May 6 may be 0.654 million (6.54 lakh), almost three times of the official count of 0.221 million (2.21 lakh). The IHME, which comes out with an annual Global Burden of Disease study, has been using an updated methodology to project Covid deaths in various countries in the world. Using the methodology to assess “excess deaths” , the IHME estimates that nearly seven million people have died worldwide as direct victims of the virus. This is about double the number of casualties reported on the basis of official or verifiable sources.
Civil society experts have accused states of underreporting deaths, especially from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Gujarat. “There is a huge possibility of underreporting of Covid deaths, especially from rural areas, where there are not enough facilities for RTPCR tests. When RTPCR is not needed for admission in a Covid ward, how it could be a requirement for recording deaths. Any cremation or burial with Covid protocol should be considered a Covid death. This would provide realistic Covid death figures,” said Karnal-based civil rights activist Ramji Lal.
(With inputs from state bureaus)
