Jana Sena, TDP tie-up may prove more beneficial for Naidu: Experts

Tuesday’s meeting in Vijayawada between Naidu and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan, who heads Jana Sena Party, was a first after nearly five years.

An alliance with the Jana Sena Party is likely to be of mutual benefit for both parties, senior leaders of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh familiar with the matter have said.

Tuesday’s meeting in Vijayawada between Naidu and Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan, was a first after nearly five years. (HT)

Political analysts, however, believe that the tie-up may prove more beneficial for the TDP and its chief N Chandrababu Naidu — following the drubbing in the 2019 assembly elections and all the local body elections held subsequently.

Tuesday’s meeting in Vijayawada between Naidu and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan, who heads Jana Sena Party, was a first after nearly five years.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, both Naidu and Kalyan had indicated at a possible alignment between their parties to take on the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) government led by Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy in the 2024 assembly elections.

Though Naidu said to reporters that there was still time for both the parties to talk about alliances, a senior leader of his party privy to developments said an agreement had been forged between the two parties to fight the next elections together.

TDP leaders say that an alliance with the Jana Sena Party will work as an added advantage for their party, while also bolstering Kalyan’s political career.

“The TDP has the capability to put up an independent fight against the YSRCP in the next elections, but if Pawan Kalyan joins hands with it, it will be an added advantage,” said one senior TDP leader, on condition of anonymity.

At the same time, it is also beneficial to Pawan Kalyan, who can make his presence felt in the assembly with the TDP support and that will help him sustain his political career,” the leader added.

But political analyst Mallu Rajesh said the alliance would be more advantageous to Naidu because of Kalyan’s statewide appeal owing to his work in films. “The actor has a huge fan following, especially among the Kapu community and also a section of Dalit youth. The TDP can reap rich benefits with their support if there is an alliance,” he said.

A politically strong community in Andhra Pradesh, Kapus and their affiliated caste groups like Balijas, Telagas and Ontaris, constitute 15.2% of the total population in the state. East and West Godavari districts are considered strongholds of the community.

Traditionally, the community voted for the Congress. In 2008, they made an attempt to come together as a consolidated vote bank, when Pawan Kalyan’s elder brother and popular actor Chiranjeevi floated a new political outfit — the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP).

But PRP failed to put up an impressive show in the 2009 elections. It could win only 18 out of 294 assembly seats with a vote share of 17.5%. In February 2011, Chiranjeevi merged his party with the Congress.

Kalyan then floated his party in 2014, but did not contest the elections in the aftermath of the state’s bifurcation and creation of Telangana. Instead, his party lent support to the BJP-TDP combine which won the 2014 election. In the 2019 elections, however, Jana Sena contested in alliance with the Left parties and the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but failed to make any impact. It could win only one MLA seat with a vote share of 5.54%.

“The ensuing 2024 elections provide yet another chance for the Kapus to get a share in power. But Pawan Kalyan lacks the cadre base and organisational structure. So, he must be trying to join hands with the TDP, at least to share the power,” Rajesh said.

Interestingly, Naidu, who took over the chief minister’s post and party from his father-in-law N T Rama Rao in a midnight coup in August 1995, has never won any assembly election independently.

In the 1999 assembly elections, the TDP allied with the BJP and came to power riding on the popularity of then BJP stalwart Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the post-Kargil war scenario. In the 2004 elections, however, the TDP lost the elections and broke the alliance with the BJP.

In 2009, Naidu forged an alliance with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Left parties, but still lost the elections due to splitting of anti-incumbency vote by Chiranjeevi’s PRP.

For the 2014 elections, the TDP again forged an alliance with the BJP and secured support from Jana Sena Party and came to power cashing in on the nationwide charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, relations with the BJP soured in 2018 and TDP quit the National Democatric Alliance (NDA) at the Centre over the demand for a special package to Andhra state after it was bifurcated.

The TDP then contested in the 2019 assembly election independently but could win only 23 of the 175 assembly seats as against 151 seats won by the YSRCP.

“Now, he has realised that the TDP doesn’t have enough strength to win the elections in 2024, which is perhaps his last chance. So, he is trying for an alliance with the Jana Sena Party,” Rajesh said.