Keeping up with UP| Ambedkar Vs Hindutva: What will OBCs and Dalits vote for

In the Milkipur bypoll, caste dynamics overshadow faith and development, testing voter sentiment among Dalits and OBCs ahead of the February 5 election.

Voters of the backward and reserved constituency of Milkipur have seemingly prefer caste over faith and development including in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when caste equations and the debate over the Constitution likely prevailed over the narrative on faith.

Dalits and OBCs had turned the tables on the BJP in the 2024 polls despite the town’s geographical closeness to the temple city of Ayodhya (AFP/Representative photo)

Thus, in the forthcoming poll on February 5, the non-descript Milkipur will be a ground to test the mood of the voters, especially Dalits and OBCs. They had turned the tables on the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 polls despite the town’s geographical closeness to the temple city of Ayodhya. How they vote in three weeks may help the contesting parties to revise and realign their poll planks

The high-stake bypoll is set for a direct contest between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BJP as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has decided against contesting it and the Congress has announced that it will support the SP.

For the BJP, winning Milkipur is a prestige issue after it lost the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency last year The party was expecting a windfall of votes in the entire region after the consecration of the temple by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on January 22, 2024. Faizabad went to the polls on May 20 and Milkipur is one of its assembly segments. Ayodhya is 40 kms and Prayagraj 165 kms from Milkipur.

The winner Awadhesh Prasad (SP) shot into limelight after defeating sitting BJP MP Lallu Singh. The issue that worked in SP’s favour was Singh’s comment on the BJP amending the Constitution if it won over 400 seats, a target fixed by Modi himself. The SP would like to retain the seat, given the electoral importance of the region.

THE BACKDROP

The state is drenched in a saffron hue with Ayodhya celebrating one year of Ram temple’s inauguration in January 2024, lakhs of pilgrims descending on Prayagraj for a dip in holy Sangam during the Mahakumbh and the narratives over the apparent rediscovery of old temples in several districts.

The election is also being held in the background of the Dalit umbrage at Union home minister Amit Shah’s comment on BR Ambedkar in Lok Sabha that revived fears of a possible amendment in the Constitution besides reaffirming their belief about the upper caste control of the BJP.

The SP MP, whose personal reputation is at stake as his son Ajeet Prasad is contesting polls amid silent opposition within the local unit, is playing the Ambedkar card. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav on the other hand will know the political efficacy of PDA formula (consolidation of backward, Dalit and minorities) when the result is announced. The BJP had earlier dismissed the shift of Dalit votes to the SP as an aberration; Milkipur will either endorse their view or give them jitters. Yadav has also talked about the importance of free and fair elections, and the alleged manipulation of electronic voting machines for long. He has invited national and international media to Milkipur to see how elections are held in UP.

The absence of the BSP can work both ways as Mayawati can still transfer her votes to the party of her choice. A hundred votes can make or mar prospects in close contests. The presence of Chandrashekhar Azad’s Bhim Party may work to SP’s disadvantage if he fields rebel Surendra Chaudhury, also a Pasi.

What favours the BJP

Poll Management: Adityanath recently said, “if we can win Muslim-dominated Kundarki, we can win Pasi-dominated Milkipur also”. He has adopted a multi-pronged strategy, which includes creating a dent in the Muslim vote bank by arm twisting the business class even as the candidate befriends them.

Stray cattle menace: This has been a major issue here. The government has formed several committees to check the menace.

Power Play: The deployment of several ministers, meetings with gram pradhans and booth level workers and the deployment of force. It raises hopes as well as fears.

What favours the SP

Caste Composition: Pasis dominate the Dalit population and when combined with Yadavs and Muslims form a formidable vote bank. Awadhesh Prasad had won the seat in 2022 Assembly polls vacating it after his elevation to the Lok Sabha.

Stronghold: It used to be Communist Party of India stronghold with its candidate winning the seat in 1977, 1980, 1985 and 1993 and as an SP candidate in 1996. Milkipur did not support BJP even during the temple movement. The left votes later went to the SP which won the seat in 1998, 2002, 2004, 2012 and 2022. BJP won it only in 1991 and 2017.

Ambedkar and the caste census: This is the area where SP will be able to gauge the impact of the controversy over Ambedkar and the promise of the caste census. This could be the game changer if the party succeeds in uniting Dalits and lower castes under PDA.

Deployment: The SP will fight the election on the ground as well as on social media, highlighting the allegations of corrupt methods adopted by the ruling party. The party has sent a battery of seasoned politicians to keep the cadre motivated.