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Kerala to vote on Apr 9: Do-or-die for Congress-led UDF as LDF eyes hat-trick record
The announcement covered the complete polling schedule for the 140-seat Kerala assembly, besides those for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry
Assembly elections in Kerala will be held in a single phase on April 9, and votes will be counted on May 4, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced on Sunday.
The election is mainly expected to be a contest between the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is hoping to make some inroads into the state.
In 2021, the LDF retained power, winning 99 of the 140 seats. The UDF bagged 41. The NDA has zero representation in the outgoing assembly.
Left- or Congress-led coalitions have ruled Kerala since it was formed in 1956, and the first elections were held a year later. CPI(M) and Communist Party of India have won eight of the 15 elections. The Congress-led fronts have won seven elections.
In 2021, a coalition was re-elected for a second consecutive time for the first time in four decades, underlining strong anti-incumbency sentiments and inclination to vote out a government every five years.
The arrest of top CPI(M) leaders in the Sabarimala gold misappropriation case, infrastructure, health, education, the state-Centre tussle on finances, human-wildlife conflict, and ties of political parties with Muslim outfit Jamaat-e-Islami are expected to be the dominant issues in the 2026 elections.
The UDF has maintained an upper hand in the assembly bypolls since 2021, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the local body elections. Past trends show that voters vote differently in each election.
The LDF, with the slogan "Who else, but LDF?", has said its campaign will focus on the achievements of the last 10 years of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government, particularly in infrastructure, industry, IT, health, and education sectors, and rehabilitation post the 2018 floods, 2020-21 Covid-19 pandemic, and the 2024 Wayanad landslide.
National highway expansion works, the Vizhinjam International port, GAIL pipeline, Kochi Metro, and the township for Wayanad landslide survivors are some of the prestige projects it plans to showcase.
The LDF has not named its chief ministerial candidate, and Vijayan, 80, is likely to be chosen to lead the government if it retains power. The debacle in the local body polls and the alleged involvement of Left leaders in the Sabarimala theft case have come as major setbacks to the LDF.
For the Congress and the UDF, the election is a do-or-die battle as a third successive defeat could potentially erode their support base and pave the way for the BJP to grow. Despite factionalism, the Congress leadership in the state has largely remained united under the state chief, Sunny Joseph, and Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan.
The opposition hopes the allegations against CPM leaders and Devaswom officials in the Sabarimala theft case, the overdependence of the government on Kerala Infrastructure and Investment Fund Board to push infra projects, the ballooning public debt, and rising unemployment will help it return to power after a decade. The backing of minority Christian and Muslim voters in the local body polls has given the UDF much-needed confidence.
Ramesh Chennithala and VD Satheesan are expected to be the UDF's chief ministerial candidates.
The BJP-led NDA has remained a marginal political player in Kerala despite being in power at the Centre for over a decade and having a robust network of its ideological fount, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. It managed to get 12.41% votes in the 2021 elections. The LDF and UDF bagged 45.43% and 39.47% votes.
The BJP won an assembly seat in Kerala in 2016 before losing it to the CPI(M) in 2021. Under Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the BJP is gearing up for a better show. It has planned its campaign around the slogan "Maarathathu Maarum (What has not changed will now change". The BJP plans to showcase the contributions of the Narendra Modi government to Kerala in the form of new trains, including Vande Bharat services, and schemes like Jal Jeevan Mission, rural roads, and the farmers' insurance scheme.
The polls are being held after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The state now has over 26.9 million eligible voters.
