Lok Sabha elections 2024 ground report: Tamil Nadu remains elusive for BJP

Apart from a few die-hard supporters here and there, the author found no enthusiasm among ordinary folks for the BJP.

Forget Ayodhya, the contrast with even Assam and North Bengal was starkly visible as the car moved from the Coimbatore airport towards the city. In central Uttar Pradesh and even Assam and North Bengal, the saffron flag was unmissable. It was visible in shops, homes, cars, autos and even two-wheelers. No such thing in southern Tamil Nadu. Quite surprisingly, one week or so after the author spent a few days in and around Coimbatore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to address a rally and launch the BJP campaign in Tamil Nadu. Apart from a few die-hard supporters here and there, the author found no resonance and no enthusiasm among ordinary folks.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacts with Tamil Nadu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President K Annamalai during a public rally in Kanniyakumari. (ANI Photo)

Many sitting in New Delhi and gushing about the BJP state president K Annamalai will make a big difference in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would be dismayed by talking to people in Coimbatore, Tirupur, Madurai, Nagercoil and even Kanyakumari. It’s the Dravidian parties that rule the roost here.

One senior journalist based in Coimbatore who did not want to be named quipped: “Well, the chances of the BJP winning three to four seats in Tamil Nadu are as high as the Congress tally touching 150 Lok Sabha seats this time. Sure, miracles can happen. But really doubt”.

More than 450 kilometres away from Coimbatore is Kanyakumari, the southern tip of India, the place where Swami Vivekananda contemplated the revival and resurgence of Hinduism. Early in the morning, the author saw hundreds and hundreds of tourists flocking to the Vivekananda Rock Memorial on the sea. But once again, the difference between Ayodhya and Kanyakumari was stark.

In Ayodhya, when the author had visited the new Ram Temple and the Saryu Ghat, the thousands of the faithful were steeped in spiritual fervour. In Kanyakumari, they were just having fun as tourists.

Subhash is a long-time BJP worker who has also worked with the youth wing of the party. He candidly admits that the BJP leader Pon Radhakrishnan who had won the Kanyakumari seat last in 2014 has very little chance of winning this time. According to him, the core voters of the VCK, an alliance partner of the DMK is a decisive 6% or so and will swing the seat towards that alliance. “Besides, we (Hindus) are already less than 50% of the population here. At this rate, I don’t see a very bright future for BJP candidates. But for us, ideology and Sanatan Dharma are more importants and we will keep on fighting.”, he adds.

Subhash is happy that the Modi regime is “finally” cracking the whip on missionary organisations dedicated to converting Indians to Christianity who get foreign funds as charitable NGOs.

But quite clearly, the continuing weakness of the BJP in Tamil Nadu is not because of Christian missionaries. The real reason is that it has failed to break through the walls of Tamil sub-nationalism built by Dravidian parties for decades. Hindi imposition and anti-Brahmanism along with Tamil self-respect and pride remain the dominant themes in politics. There can be little doubt that Prime Minister Modi has invested heavily is repeatedly displaying respect for the Tamil language, culture and traditions.

Many people the author met in southern Tamil Nadu think Modi genuinely appreciates the Tamil culture and they admire him for it. But the same set of people also say that most other BJP leaders don’t deserve their admiration. Even people who found the statements of Udaynidhi Stalin on Sanatan Dharma needlessly offensive do not have much empathy with the BJP. A former AIDMK MLA met the author at the Cosmopolitan Club in Coimbatore. According to him, the feeling that the BJP is an upper-caste North Indian party is so deeply embedded in the psyche of a majority of Tamil voters that they often refuse to see and understand that the BJP has changed fundamentally in the last two decades in India and is now a backward caste and class driven party. He says even the BJP Tamil Nadu leader Annamalai belongs to a backward caste. But the core voters of the DMK, the AIADMK and other regional caste-based parties like the VCK remain unimpressed.

Another reason why the phenomenal growth of the BJP in east, central, west & north India has failed to materialise in a state like Tamil Nadu is that for ordinary Tamil voters, welfare schemes and freebies have been part of the political culture for decades.

The C-Voter opinion poll conducted in early February suggests a clean sweep for the DMK-led alliance. On the ground, the author found even AIDMK supporters expecting that kind of a result because the opposition is fragmented.

(This is the sixth in a series of 40 field reports from all corners of India in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections that aim to understand how the country is changing in fundamental ways.)