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Monsoon set to keep June 1 onset date with Kerala
India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the rainy season, which is crucial for the agri economy
India is likely to see a normal monsoon this year, expected to arrive on time in Kerala on June 1, a top government official said on Thursday, citing an early indication ahead of the India Meteorological Department’s official forecast due May 15.
India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the four-month rainy season, which is crucial for the country’s farm-dependent agricultural economy that employs nearly 50% of the country’s population.
A normal monsoon -- which hits Kerala around June 1 and covers the rest of the country by mid-July -- is imperative for the agriculture sector, especially this year, as it could help farmers and cultivators sidestep losses due to a pandemic ravaging the country.
“Extended range forecast suggests monsoon will arrive over Kerala on time, around June 1. This is an early indication. @indiametdept [The India Meteorological Department] official monsoon forecast on May 15 and rainfall forecast update around May 31,” said M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
“Early analysis indicates monsoon will arrive around June 1 over Kerala. Like we have projected earlier it’s likely to be a normal monsoon this year,” he added.
Also read | IMD forecasts thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain in Delhi, adjoining area
In its long-range forecast, IMD said on April 16 that annual monsoon rains are likely to be normal at around 98% of the long period average (LPA) after two years of above-average rainfall. It, however, said there can be a variation of 5% over or under the prediction.
The same month, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather too assessed that monsoon is likely to be a “healthy normal” at 103% this year. The IMD’s forecast indicated this at the lower end of its normal LPA range.
LPA is the average rainfall (88cm) recorded from 1961 to 2010, and rainfall between 94-106% is considered “normal”.
India has recorded above-average monsoon rains in the last two years -- considered to be the prime reason for the farm sector’s resilience despite the Covid-19 pandemic that severely hit businesses and brought economies to a standstill during the 68-day nationwide lockdown last year. The agriculture sector grew 3.4% in the June 2020 quarter even as the Indian economy shrank 24.4% in the same period. In the quarter ending December 2020 , agriculture grew at 3.9% and India’s GDP recovered to see 0.4% growth.
Experts said a normal monsoon will significantly help the agriculture sector tide over the public health crisis this year as well. “Migrant labour normally goes back to their villages during the Kharif season to do some farming because urban incomes are uncertain and living in urban areas is also increasingly becoming uncertain. So, going back and farming reduces risk. In the past five years farm insurance has become a serious problem because many states including Telangana and Gujarat haven’t managed to pay their premiums and went out of insurance cover. A normal monsoon is so important for reducing risk to people’s lives,” Ramanjaneyulu GV, executive director at the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, Telangana, said last month.
Around 60% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation, and relies on monsoon rains. Nearly half of the country’s population, including 150 million farmers, is engaged in the sector. Additionally, monsoon rains also replenish 89 nationally important reservoirs that are critical for drinking and power generation.
If the forecast is accurate, this will only be the second time in two decades that India will have recorded normal rainfall for three consecutive years. Previously, India saw normal monsoon for three back-to-back years from 1996-1998.
The normal date for monsoon withdrawal is October 15.
