E-Paper
Monsoon-dependent Indian subcontinent is highly climate exposed: Aditi Mukherji
Aditi Mukherji, IPCC Synthesis Report co-author and CGIAR Director, said South Asia is a climate hotspot and the Indian subcontinent did not really need an IPCC report to tell us how climate exposed the region is
While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Synthesis Report on Monday projected that the average global temperature may rise above the benchmark of 1.5° Celsius within the next decade, the world is at a critical juncture where every bit of action matters to prevent any increment in global warming, Aditi Mukherji, co-author of the IPCC Synthesis Report and Director, Climate Change Impact platform, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) said in a telephonic interview on Tuesday. Edited excerpts:
What is the key message of IPCC on Paris Agreement goals? Do we take the IPCC message as one of hope or to say that the 1.5°C threshold will most certainly be breached?
When it comes to the 1.5°C goal and given the current mitigation pathways we are in, unless we have deep, sustained and rapid emission reductions by 45-50% by the end of this decade, it is almost certain that we will be crossing the 1.5° Celsius limit by the middle of next decade. Having said that, it is not as if crossing the 1.5° Celsius is a cliff from which all of us fall. It is a cliff for some though like it is existential for small island developing countries because of all the water-related issues and sea level rise, for regions with glaciers etc. But for the overall climate system, what is more important is to ensure global average temperature rises as low as possible. Even if we cross 1.5° Celsius, 1.55° Celsius will still be better than 1.6° Celsius. Every bit of action matters. We have to keep striving. So, IPCC has a message of hope, and of disappointment that enough action is not being taken.
Does the IPCC report address concerns of equity and different starting points?
The report states that vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected, which is a very strong message. IPCC is also linking equity to unsustainable energy use, land use, lifestyles, patterns of consumption and production which leads to unequal emissions. What comes out strongly is also the issue of finance where we are saying not enough finance goes to adaptation and that a lot of the proposed finance will be in the form of loans instead of grants. It is quite problematic when it comes to adaptation.
How is the climate crisis likely to impact South Asia and India?
South Asia is a climate hotspot. Our location in the tropics, the very fact that we are so monsoon dependent and monsoon is affected by climate change, we are so glacier dependent that most of our rivers are glacier fed and the glaciers are melting. We are surrounded by seas on both sides and tropical cyclones are intensifying. When it comes to climate impact drivers, we know we are prone and one of the climate-vulnerable hotspots globally. We have some of the most fantastic climate models and a lot of scientific research is happening on that front. In February this year, we had record temperatures and last year India saw a severe spring heat spell. We do not need an IPCC report to tell us how climate exposed the Indian subcontinent is.
What is IPCC’s message on fossil fuels?
There is a need to phase out all fossil fuels which comes out quite clearly in the report. There is a need for finance for just transition is also clearly stated. The impacts will be unequal and those facing losses and damages need a financial mechanism to deal with them.
What is the report saying on carbon capture technologies?
IPCC is focusing on consumption and demand-side management. We are saying that we cannot really take a very technocratic approach where we keep emitting and technology will save us. That’s not at all what we are saying. We need to make lifestyle changes not only in the global North where they have unsustainable lifestyles and high consumption but also in the global South. There is a need for equitable consumption within the global south as well. Carbon capture is not the primary solution. The primary solution is deep, sustained and rapid emission reductions with a goal towards net zero emissions.
