Numbers behind Rajasthan story
The situation in Rajasthan could change if some MLAs who attended the CLP meeting decide to switch to Pilot’s side. There is no indication at the moment that this could happen.Updated: Jul 15, 2020 04:57 IST
Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot’s government enjoys a wafer-thin majority. Here is how all the numbers stack up:
200 Total MLAs in the Rajasthan assembly
107 Number of Congress legislators, including the Speaker
101 The majority mark in the assembly. Also, the number of legislators who attended the Congress legislative party meeting at the Fairmont Hotel in Jaipur on Tuesday, although only 88 of these (including Gehlot) were from the Congress. There were 10 independent legislators, two from the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), and one from the Communist Party of India (Marxist).
104 Legislators whose support Gehlot claimed in a meeting with the governor later in the day, according to the party.
2 BTP legislators who attended the Fairmont meeting but left for their homes, saying they would take a call on support at an “appropriate” time.
4 Legislators who left the Sachin Pilot camp on Sunday, and signalled their support for Gehlot.
19 Congress MLAs (including Pilot) supporting Sachin Pilot.
3 Independents supporting Pilot
1 Legislator who seems to be counted by both sides (likely Bhanwarlal Meghwal).
181 Reduced strength of the assembly, if Gehlot decides to disqualify the 19 Congress MLAs supporting Pilot.
91 Majority mark in a 181-member assembly
92 MLAs BJP could hypothetically muster, if it can convince the three independents with Pilot, and all the 10 other independents, two CPI(M) members and two BTP members, to support it. The BJP and its ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party have 75 MLAs
X-Factor: The situation could change if some MLAs who attended the CLP meeting decide to switch to Pilot’s side. There is no indication at the moment that this could happen. Although Gehlot claims to have a majority, “the numbers are not very comfortable for him,” said Jaipur-based analyst Narayan Bareth